xgEdge

Expected goals

NK Istra 1961 expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

HNL · after 8 matches · updated 1 Oct

NK Istra 1961's attacking and defensive expected goals in HNL 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

NK Istra 1961 xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.44 xG per match
#5/10
Attack (xG per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.24
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.65
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.52
#4 NK Osijek 1.51
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.44
#6 NK Varaždin 1.41
#7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.05
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 HNK Gorica 0.87
#10 NK Rudeš 0.60
League avg
1.31
Total
11.55 8 matches
Defence
1.26 xGA per match
#5/10
Defence (xGA per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 0.74
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.77
#3 NK Varaždin 0.88
#4 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.91
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.26
#6 NK Osijek 1.28
#7 HNK Gorica 1.37
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 1.68
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.84
#10 NK Rudeš 2.20
League avg
1.31
Total
10.04 8 matches
xG difference
+0.19 xGD per match
#6/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb +1.32
#2 HNK Rijeka +0.88
#3 HNK Hajduk Split +0.78
#4 NK Varaždin +0.53
#5 NK Osijek +0.23
#6 NK Istra 1961 +0.19
#7 HNK Gorica -0.50
#8 NK Slaven Belupo -0.76
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.79
#10 NK Rudeš -1.61
League avg
0.00
Total
+1.51 8 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.45 xPts per match
#6/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.23
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.96
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.93
#4 NK Varaždin 1.80
#5 NK Osijek 1.53
#6 NK Istra 1961 1.45
#7 HNK Gorica 0.95
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.82
#10 NK Rudeš 0.45
League avg
1.39
Total
11.60 vs 9 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 8 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

NK Istra 1961's underlying numbers sit close to the HNL average. They rank #6 for xG difference at +0.19 per match, built on elite chance quality rather than about average shot volume. Their 14 goals are 2.45 above 11.55 xG, while 9 points are 2.60 below 11.60 xPts. After only 8 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.18 xG from penalties
14 11.55 +2.45 scored 2.45 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
13 10.04 +2.96 conceded 2.96 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
9 11.60 -2.60 2.60 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

NK Istra 1961 are 2.45 goals above their xG after 8 matches. The gap was widest at +3.66, against NK Rudeš on Sun 13/09.

Goals
14
xG
11.55
Gap
+2.45
Sat 01/08 Sun 09/08 Sat 15/08 Sun 23/08 Sat 29/08 Fri 04/09 Sun 13/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 -0.35 +0.71 +0.86 +1.67 +2.83 +2.53 +3.66 +2.45 -0.35 +1.06 +0.15 +0.81 +1.16 -0.30 +1.13 -1.21 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
NK Istra 1961: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 01/08 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 2.35 -0.35 -0.35
Sun 09/08 HNK Hajduk Split 2 0.94 +1.06 +0.71
Sat 15/08 NK Slaven Belupo 3 2.85 +0.15 +0.86
Sun 23/08 HNK Rijeka 2 1.19 +0.81 +1.67
Sat 29/08 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2 0.84 +1.16 +2.83
Fri 04/09 NK Varaždin 0 0.30 -0.30 +2.53
Sun 13/09 NK Rudeš 3 1.87 +1.13 +3.66
Sat 19/09 HNK Gorica 0 1.21 -1.21 +2.45

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

NK Istra 1961 xG trend

Current form +0.06 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 8 matches. The worst was against NK Varaždin on Fri 04/09 (-1.15).

npxG · last 6
1.18
npxGA · last 6
1.12
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +1.45 Sat 01/08 -0.79 Sun 09/08 +2.55 Sat 15/08 -0.88 Sun 23/08 -1.07 Sat 29/08 -1.15 Fri 04/09 +0.24 Sun 13/09 +0.67 Sat 19/09 +0.13 season avg
NK Istra 1961: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 01/08 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2.38 0.93 +1.45 +1.45
Sun 09/08 HNK Hajduk Split 0.94 1.73 -0.79 +0.33
Sat 15/08 NK Slaven Belupo 2.85 0.30 +2.55 +1.07
Sun 23/08 HNK Rijeka 0.77 1.65 -0.88 +0.58
Sat 29/08 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.84 1.91 -1.07 +0.25
Fri 04/09 NK Varaždin 0.30 1.45 -1.15 +0.02
Sun 13/09 NK Rudeš 1.08 0.84 +0.24 +0.05
Sat 19/09 HNK Gorica 1.21 0.54 +0.67 +0.13

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.30 npxG and 1.17 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 5 hardest of 10 in HNL
0.00 xG vs league average
Over 8 league matches
Last 5
number 4 hardest of 10 in HNL
+0.07 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

0.00 xG vs league average · over 8 matches · tied number 5 hardest of 10

  1. HNK Gorica Home −0.34
  2. NK Rudeš Home −0.51
  3. NK Varaždin Away +0.13
  4. GNK Dinamo Zagreb Home +0.52
  5. HNK Rijeka Away +0.55
  6. NK Slaven Belupo Home −0.33
  7. HNK Hajduk Split Away +0.38
  8. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Home −0.39

Last 5

+0.07 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 4 hardest of 10

  1. HNK Gorica Home −0.34
  2. NK Rudeš Home −0.51
  3. NK Varaždin Away +0.13
  4. GNK Dinamo Zagreb Home +0.52
  5. HNK Rijeka Away +0.55

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

NK Istra 1961 shots and chance quality

Average volume, high quality. NK Istra 1961 take 13.0 shots a match (league 13.7) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.09), #6 in HNL for volume and #3 for quality. 60% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 14% of their npxG (league 21%).

Attack

Shot volume
13.0 shots per match
#6/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 19.6
#2 NK Osijek 17.6
#3 HNK Rijeka 17.6
#4 HNK Hajduk Split 15.5
#5 NK Varaždin 14.1
#6 NK Istra 1961 13.0
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 11.5
=8 HNK Gorica 9.9
=8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 9.9
#10 NK Rudeš 9.1
League avg
13.7
Total
104 shots from 8 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#3/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
#2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.10
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.10
#4 HNK Rijeka 0.09
#5 NK Varaždin 0.09
#6 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.08
#8 HNK Gorica 0.07
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.07
#10 NK Rudeš 0.06
League avg
0.09
Total
10.37 npxG from 104 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
14.6 shots per match
#6/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 7.5
#2 HNK Rijeka 7.9
#3 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 9.1
#4 NK Varaždin 12.1
#5 NK Osijek 12.6
#6 NK Istra 1961 14.6
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 16.5
#8 HNK Gorica 16.6
#9 NK Rudeš 17.5
#10 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 20.8
League avg
13.7
Total
117 shots allowed from 8 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.08 npxGA per shot
#3/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 NK Varaždin 0.06
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.08
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.08
#4 HNK Gorica 0.08
#5 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#6 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.09
#8 NK Rudeš 0.10
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.10
#10 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
League avg
0.09
Total
9.35 npxGA from 117 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

60% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 62 of 104 shots over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

62% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 73 of 117 shots allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

86% open play · 14% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 1.5 of 10.4 npxG over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

65% open play · 35% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 3.3 of 9.3 npxG allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

NK Istra 1961 home and away xG

NK Istra 1961 per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 5 3
xG / match 1.82 0.81
xGA / match 0.99 1.69
xGD / match +0.83 -0.88
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.92 0.66

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every NK Istra 1961 match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
8
xG / match
1.44
xGA / match
1.26
xGD / match
+0.19
Points
9 of 24
  1. Sat 19/09 HNK Gorica H xG 1.21 xGA 0.61 xGD +0.60
  2. Sun 13/09 NK Rudeš H xG 1.87 P xGA 0.84 xGD +1.03
  3. Fri 04/09 NK Varaždin A xG 0.30 xGA 1.45 xGD -1.15
  4. Sat 29/08 GNK Dinamo Zagreb H Weakest underlying xG 0.84 xGA 2.06 xGD -1.22
  5. Sun 23/08 HNK Rijeka A xG 1.19 xGA 1.95 xGD -0.76
  6. Sat 15/08 NK Slaven Belupo H Best underlying xG 2.85 xGA 0.30 xGD +2.55
  7. Sun 09/08 HNK Hajduk Split A xG 0.94 xGA 1.67 xGD -0.73
  8. Sat 01/08 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb H Against the chances xG 2.35 xGA 1.16 xGD +1.19

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

NK Istra 1961 in HNL

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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