What NK Istra 1961 have left to play in HNL 2026/2027, soonest first. Open a match for the projection behind it and the prices standing against it.
Fixture outlook
5 matches ahead in HNL
Every club's remaining calendar is a different length, so there is nothing of equal length to place the whole of this one against.
What the fixtures say
The run of 5 matches ahead of NK Istra 1961 in HNL rates 3.3 of 5 for difficulty, which the scale calls Balanced. 1 of them rates harder than balanced, and nothing in the run rates easier. The model expects 1.08 projected xG a match from them and 3.2 of the 9 points the priced fixtures could return. The hardest of them is NK Osijek away, banded 4 of 5 — Difficult, against an attack rated 62/99 and a defence rated 55/99. Worth reading those figures against: the model has not priced 2 of these 5 matches.
The run at a glance
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away Sat 17/10
Projected xG 1.26 – 1.33 NK Istra 1961 win 32%
NK Osijek away Sat 10/10
Projected xG 0.96 – 1.62 NK Istra 1961 win 19%
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Open the match page for NK Osijek
Sat 10/10 Away NK Osijek HNL
4 Difficult Opponent: attack 62/99, defence 55/99Projected xG 0.96 – 1.62 Projected xPts 0.87- NK Osijek
- 52%
- Draw
- 29%
- NK Istra 1961
- 19%
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Open the match page for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Sat 17/10 Away NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL
3 Balanced Opponent: attack 40/99, defence 26/99Projected xG 1.26 – 1.33 Projected xPts 1.29- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 36%
- Draw
- 31%
- NK Istra 1961
- 32%
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Open the match page for HNK Hajduk Split
Sat 24/10 Home HNK Hajduk Split HNL
3 Balanced Opponent: attack 67/99, defence 67/99Projected xG 1.03 – 1.37 Projected xPts 1.08- NK Istra 1961
- 26%
- Draw
- 32%
- HNK Hajduk Split
- 43%
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Open the match page for NK Slaven Belupo
Sat 31/10 Away NK Slaven Belupo HNL
Not priced yet, so there is no band for it Opponent: attack 38/99, defence 32/99 -
Open the match page for HNK Rijeka
Sat 07/11 Home HNK Rijeka HNL
Not priced yet, so there is no band for it Opponent: attack 67/99, defence 79/99
HNL publishes only its next few rounds, so the list stops here. The rest of the season is added as the league schedules it.
The band is how hard the model rates each match, from 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest). Opponent attack and defence use the same 1–99 scale as Team Strength, where 50 is the average side in HNL.
Fixture difficulty in HNL
Reads each matchup for NK Istra 1961: the band is cut from the model's chances of NK Istra 1961 winning and losing the match, so NK Istra 1961's own strength and home advantage are in it.
Every club's remaining calendar is a different length, so there is nothing of equal length to place the whole of this one against.
Upcoming opponent strength
number 4 hardest of 10 in HNL
+0.08 xG vs league average
Over 5 upcoming league fixtures
Reads the opponents alone, whoever plays them: each one's fitted xG margin against HNL's average club, with no venue and nothing of NK Istra 1961's own strength in it.
Opponents behind the figure
Upcoming
+0.08 xG vs league average · over 5 fixtures · number 4 hardest of 10
- NK Osijek Away +0.18
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Away −0.39
- HNK Hajduk Split Home +0.38
- NK Slaven Belupo Away −0.33
- HNK Rijeka Home +0.55
About these numbers
What is published, what is worked out, and what is the model's
Published by the fixtures feed and stored as it arrives: the kickoff time, the two clubs, the competition, and whether a match is still scheduled.
Worked out here from stored figures: each opponent's attack and defence on a 1–99 scale, where 50 is the average side in HNL and a higher score is a stronger side at both ends; the difficulty band, cut from the model's chances of winning and losing each fixture; and everything the outlook, the strip and the fixture difficulty block add up from the rows — the run's mean band, its averages and totals, the counts they were taken over, the placings and the competition's average.
Worked out here from the model's ratings alone: the Upcoming opponent strength block, the mean of the next 5 opponents' fitted xG margins against the league's average club, whoever plays them, and its rank among the competition's clubs.
The model's output, for matches nobody has played yet: projected xG and xGA, the chances of a win, a draw and a loss, and xPts.
Projected xG is what the model expects a side to create in a match still to come. It is not the xG on the Results page, which measures the chances a side actually had.
xPts is what those three chances are worth in points: 3 times the chance of a win plus the chance of a draw, so 3 is the most a single fixture can be worth.
The difficulty band runs from 1, the most favourable fixture, to 5, the least favourable — so the lower a run's difficulty, the kinder the run.