Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 17:00
13d 15h to kick-offNK Lokomotiva Zagreb – NK Istra 1961
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 36%
- Draw
- 31%
- NK Istra 1961
- 32%
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | Draw | NK Istra 1961 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.75 | 3.21 | 3.08 |
- Total goals
- 2.59
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
36% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 7th
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack v NK Istra 1961 defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 6th
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence v NK Istra 1961 attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.79 vs +0.18
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.33 – 1.26
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v NK Istra 1961
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | NK Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.05 · 7th | (better) 1.44 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 1.84 · 9th | (better) 1.26 · 5th |
| xGD / match | -0.79 · 9th | (better) +0.19 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 0.82 · 9th | (better) 1.45 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.79 | (better) +0.18 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb clean sheet
- 26%
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 2:1
- 9.8%
- 1:2
- 9.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb sample
- 20 matches
- NK Istra 1961 sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · NK Istra 1961
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.