Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 20:00
Full timeGNK Dinamo Zagreb 3:2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
GNK Dinamo Zagreb were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 70%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's attack: 1.42 xG against 0.76 projected (+0.66). GNK Dinamo Zagreb produced 1.88 xG against 2.18 projected (−0.30).
Goals
- 11' Niko Galešić GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 0.27 xG chance 1–0
- 26' Dion Drena Beljo GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 0.34 xG chance 2–0
- 28' Dušan Vuković NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 0.26 xG chance 2–1
- 58' Dion Drena Beljo GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 0.07 xG chance 3–1
- 75' Leon Belcar NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 0.36 xG chance 3–2
The model against the result
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- 70% What happened
- Draw
- 21%
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 9%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb produced 0.66 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 14
- On target
- 6
- 5
- Inside the box
- 13
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 1.56
- 1.17
- Set-piece xG
- 0.32
- 0.25
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
33 shots · 3.30 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.30 xG created 0.83 xGA
- W 2.64 created, 0.49 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
- W 3.38 created, 0.39 conceded against NK Rudeš
- W 2.10 created, 0.42 conceded against NK Varaždin
- D 2.06 created, 0.84 conceded against NK Istra 1961
- W 1.70 created, 0.79 conceded against HNK Gorica
- L 1.90 created, 2.05 conceded against NK Osijek
0.97 xG created 1.75 xGA
- W 1.13 created, 1.54 conceded against HNK Gorica
- L 0.92 created, 1.70 conceded against NK Osijek
- L 1.03 created, 1.69 conceded against NK Rudeš
- L 0.40 created, 2.18 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
- L 1.95 created, 1.37 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
- D 0.39 created, 2.01 conceded against HNK Rijeka
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged0 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | +30.3% | Lost |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb at most 1 goal | 3.75 | +26.1% | Lost |
| Draw | 6.00 | +24.2% | Lost |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb not to score | 13.00 | +23.0% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 7.00 | +21.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 70.4% | 76.7% | −6.3 pp | 1.42 |
| Draw | 20.7% | 15.1% | +5.6 pp | 4.83 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 8.9% | 8.2% | +0.7 pp | 11.20 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb to score | 90.5% | 92.6% | −2.1 pp | 1.10 |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb not to score | 9.5% | 7.4% | +2.1 pp | 10.57 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb to score | 55.9% | 53.7% | +2.3 pp | 1.79 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb not to score | 44.1% | 46.3% | −2.3 pp | 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | 50.0% | +1.9 pp | 1.93 |
| Both teams not to score | 48.1% | 50.0% | −1.9 pp | 2.08 |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals | 66.4% | 75.0% | −8.6 pp | 1.51 |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb at most 1 goal | 33.6% | 25.0% | +8.6 pp | 2.97 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals | 16.7% | 18.9% | −2.2 pp | 5.99 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at most 1 goal | 83.3% | 81.1% | +2.2 pp | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.7% | 86.4% | −3.7 pp | 1.21 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17.3% | 13.6% | +3.7 pp | 5.78 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | 69.4% | −11.5 pp | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.0% | 30.6% | +11.5 pp | 2.38 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb sample
- 20 matches
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.