NK Osijek 4:2 GNK Dinamo Zagreb: xG & match report · HNL

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 17:00

Full time

Match report · HNL

NK Osijek Home 2.05 xG · 17 shots

GNK Dinamo Zagreb Away 1.90 xG · 12 shots

42 The chances were evenly matched

GNK Dinamo Zagreb were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. NK Osijek won 4–2. The biggest difference was NK Osijek's attack: 2.05 xG against 1.09 projected (+0.96). GNK Dinamo Zagreb produced 1.90 xG against 1.37 projected (+0.53).

Goals

12' Armando León NK Osijek · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
35' Armando León NK Osijek · 0.76 xG chance 2–0
60' Luka Vrbančić NK Osijek · 0.48 xG chance 3–0
61' Miha Zajc GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 0.49 xG chance 3–1
90' Domagoj Bukvić NK Osijek · 0.10 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
90' Smail Prevljak (pen.) GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 0.82 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Osijek: 27% What happened
Draw: 32%
GNK Dinamo Zagreb: 41%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Osijek 1.09 2.05 +0.96

GNK Dinamo Zagreb 1.37 1.90 +0.53

NK Osijek produced 0.96 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Osijek GNK Dinamo Zagreb

Shots: 17; 12
On target: 9; 4
Inside the box: 10; 9
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.16
Open play xG: 2.02; 0.80
Set-piece xG: 0.01; 0.31
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.10 for NK Osijek and 1.11 for GNK Dinamo Zagreb.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 3.96 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

NK Osijek
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Osijek

1.57 xG created 1.26 xGA

W 2.70 created, 0.82 conceded against HNK Gorica
W 2.76 created, 0.60 conceded against NK Rudeš
W 1.70 created, 0.92 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
L 0.50 created, 1.66 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
W 1.43 created, 0.88 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
L 0.35 created, 2.66 conceded against HNK Rijeka

GNK Dinamo Zagreb

2.12 xG created 0.65 xGA

D 0.82 created, 0.95 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
W 2.64 created, 0.49 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
W 3.38 created, 0.39 conceded against NK Rudeš
W 2.10 created, 0.42 conceded against NK Varaždin
D 2.06 created, 0.84 conceded against NK Istra 1961
W 1.70 created, 0.79 conceded against HNK Gorica

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

NK Osijek: 0 won · 0 drawn · 4 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged4 won5 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Osijek against GNK Dinamo Zagreb before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
GNK Dinamo Zagreb not to score	8.00	+81.3%	Lost
NK Osijek to win	6.50	+76.2%	Won
GNK Dinamo Zagreb at most 1 goal	2.75	+62.9%	Lost
Draw	4.50	+42.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.40	+30.7%	Lost
NK Osijek 2+ goals	4.33	+29.8%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+25.9%	Lost
NK Osijek to score	1.67	+15.8%	Won
Both teams to score	1.83	+1.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Osijek	27.1%	13.9%	+13.2 pp	3.69
Draw	31.6%	20.0%	+11.6 pp	3.16
GNK Dinamo Zagreb	41.3%	66.1%	−24.8 pp	2.42

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Osijek to score	69.4%	55.7%	+13.7 pp	1.44
NK Osijek not to score	30.6%	44.3%	−13.7 pp	3.27
GNK Dinamo Zagreb to score	77.3%	88.1%	−10.7 pp	1.29
GNK Dinamo Zagreb not to score	22.7%	11.9%	+10.7 pp	4.41
Both teams to score	55.6%	50.0%	+5.6 pp	1.80
Both teams not to score	44.4%	50.0%	−5.6 pp	2.25
NK Osijek 2+ goals	30.0%	21.7%	+8.3 pp	3.34
NK Osijek at most 1 goal	70.0%	78.3%	−8.3 pp	1.43
GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals	40.8%	66.3%	−25.5 pp	2.45
GNK Dinamo Zagreb at most 1 goal	59.2%	33.7%	+25.5 pp	1.69
Over 1.5 goals	74.8%	81.1%	−6.2 pp	1.34
Under 1.5 goals	25.2%	18.9%	+6.2 pp	3.97
Over 2.5 goals	45.5%	61.0%	−15.5 pp	2.20
Under 2.5 goals	54.5%	39.0%	+15.5 pp	1.84

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Osijek sample: 20 matches
GNK Dinamo Zagreb sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.