xgEdge

Expected goals

NK Osijek expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

HNL · after 8 matches · updated 1 Oct

NK Osijek's attacking and defensive expected goals in HNL 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

NK Osijek xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.51 xG per match
#4/10
Attack (xG per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.24
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.65
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.52
#4 NK Osijek 1.51
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.44
#6 NK Varaždin 1.41
#7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.05
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 HNK Gorica 0.87
#10 NK Rudeš 0.60
League avg
1.31
Total
12.08 8 matches
Defence
1.28 xGA per match
#6/10
Defence (xGA per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 0.74
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.77
#3 NK Varaždin 0.88
#4 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.91
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.26
#6 NK Osijek 1.28
#7 HNK Gorica 1.37
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 1.68
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.84
#10 NK Rudeš 2.20
League avg
1.31
Total
10.25 8 matches
xG difference
+0.23 xGD per match
#5/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb +1.32
#2 HNK Rijeka +0.88
#3 HNK Hajduk Split +0.78
#4 NK Varaždin +0.53
#5 NK Osijek +0.23
#6 NK Istra 1961 +0.19
#7 HNK Gorica -0.50
#8 NK Slaven Belupo -0.76
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.79
#10 NK Rudeš -1.61
League avg
0.00
Total
+1.83 8 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.53 xPts per match
#5/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.23
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.96
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.93
#4 NK Varaždin 1.80
#5 NK Osijek 1.53
#6 NK Istra 1961 1.45
#7 HNK Gorica 0.95
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.82
#10 NK Rudeš 0.45
League avg
1.39
Total
12.24 vs 16 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 8 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

NK Osijek's underlying numbers sit close to the HNL average. They rank #5 for xG difference at +0.23 per match, driven by elite shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 17 goals are 4.92 above 12.08 xG, while 16 points are 3.76 above 12.24 xPts. After only 8 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.72 xG from penalties
17 12.08 +4.92 scored 4.92 more than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
11 10.25 +0.75 conceded 0.75 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
16 12.24 +3.76 3.76 points above xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

NK Osijek are 4.92 goals above their xG after 8 matches. The gap was widest at +5.51, against GNK Dinamo Zagreb on Sat 12/09.

Goals
17
xG
12.08
Gap
+4.92
Sat 01/08 Sat 08/08 Sat 15/08 Sun 23/08 Sun 30/08 Sat 05/09 Sat 12/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 -0.70 +2.54 +1.84 +1.34 +2.91 +3.56 +5.51 +4.92 -0.70 +3.24 -0.70 -0.50 +1.57 +0.65 +1.95 -0.59 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
NK Osijek: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 01/08 HNK Gorica 2 2.70 -0.70 -0.70
Sat 08/08 NK Rudeš 6 2.76 +3.24 +2.54
Sat 15/08 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1.70 -0.70 +1.84
Sun 23/08 HNK Hajduk Split 0 0.50 -0.50 +1.34
Sun 30/08 NK Slaven Belupo 3 1.43 +1.57 +2.91
Sat 05/09 HNK Rijeka 1 0.35 +0.65 +3.56
Sat 12/09 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 4 2.05 +1.95 +5.51
Sat 19/09 NK Varaždin 0 0.59 -0.59 +4.92

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

NK Osijek xG trend

Current form -0.22 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 5 of 8 matches. The worst was against HNK Rijeka on Sat 05/09 (-2.23).

npxG · last 6
1.12
npxGA · last 6
1.34
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +1.09 Sat 01/08 +2.16 Sat 08/08 +0.74 Sat 15/08 -1.15 Sun 23/08 +0.56 Sun 30/08 -2.23 Sat 05/09 +0.99 Sat 12/09 -0.25 Sat 19/09 +0.24 season avg
NK Osijek: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 01/08 HNK Gorica 1.91 0.82 +1.09 +1.09
Sat 08/08 NK Rudeš 2.76 0.60 +2.16 +1.63
Sat 15/08 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.71 0.97 +0.74 +1.33
Sun 23/08 HNK Hajduk Split 0.50 1.65 -1.15 +0.71
Sun 30/08 NK Slaven Belupo 1.44 0.88 +0.56 +0.68
Sat 05/09 HNK Rijeka 0.35 2.58 -2.23 +0.20
Sat 12/09 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.10 1.11 +0.99 +0.31
Sat 19/09 NK Varaždin 0.59 0.84 -0.25 +0.24

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.42 npxG and 1.18 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 5 hardest of 10 in HNL
0.00 xG vs league average
Over 8 league matches
Last 5
number 1 hardest of 10 in HNL
+0.25 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

0.00 xG vs league average · over 8 matches · tied number 5 hardest of 10

  1. NK Varaždin Away +0.13
  2. GNK Dinamo Zagreb Home +0.52
  3. HNK Rijeka Away +0.55
  4. NK Slaven Belupo Home −0.33
  5. HNK Hajduk Split Away +0.38
  6. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Home −0.39
  7. NK Rudeš Away −0.51
  8. HNK Gorica Away −0.34

Last 5

+0.25 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 1 hardest of 10

  1. NK Varaždin Away +0.13
  2. GNK Dinamo Zagreb Home +0.52
  3. HNK Rijeka Away +0.55
  4. NK Slaven Belupo Home −0.33
  5. HNK Hajduk Split Away +0.38

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

NK Osijek shots and chance quality

High volume, average quality. NK Osijek take 17.6 shots a match (league 13.7) at 0.08 npxG a shot (league 0.09), #2 in HNL for volume and #7 for quality. 60% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 14% of their npxG (league 21%).

Attack

Shot volume
17.6 shots per match
#2/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 19.6
#2 NK Osijek 17.6
#3 HNK Rijeka 17.6
#4 HNK Hajduk Split 15.5
#5 NK Varaždin 14.1
#6 NK Istra 1961 13.0
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 11.5
=8 HNK Gorica 9.9
=8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 9.9
#10 NK Rudeš 9.1
League avg
13.7
Total
141 shots from 8 matches
Chance quality
0.08 npxG per shot
#7/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
#2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.10
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.10
#4 HNK Rijeka 0.09
#5 NK Varaždin 0.09
#6 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.08
#8 HNK Gorica 0.07
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.07
#10 NK Rudeš 0.06
League avg
0.09
Total
11.36 npxG from 141 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
12.6 shots per match
#5/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 7.5
#2 HNK Rijeka 7.9
#3 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 9.1
#4 NK Varaždin 12.1
#5 NK Osijek 12.6
#6 NK Istra 1961 14.6
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 16.5
#8 HNK Gorica 16.6
#9 NK Rudeš 17.5
#10 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 20.8
League avg
13.7
Total
101 shots allowed from 8 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#7/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 NK Varaždin 0.06
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.08
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.08
#4 HNK Gorica 0.08
#5 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#6 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.09
#8 NK Rudeš 0.10
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.10
#10 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
League avg
0.09
Total
9.45 npxGA from 101 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

60% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 84 of 141 shots over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

73% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 74 of 101 shots allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

86% open play · 14% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 1.6 of 11.3 npxG over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

78% open play · 22% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 2.1 of 9.5 npxG allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

NK Osijek home and away xG

NK Osijek per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 5
xG / match 1.73 1.38
xGA / match 1.23 1.31
xGD / match +0.49 +0.07
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.77 1.39

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every NK Osijek match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
8
xG / match
1.51
xGA / match
1.28
xGD / match
+0.23
Points
16 of 24
  1. Sat 19/09 NK Varaždin A xG 0.59 xGA 0.81 xGD -0.22
  2. Sat 12/09 GNK Dinamo Zagreb H xG 2.05 xGA 1.90 P xGD +0.15
  3. Sat 05/09 HNK Rijeka A Weakest underlying xG 0.35 xGA 2.66 xGD -2.31
  4. Sun 30/08 NK Slaven Belupo H xG 1.43 xGA 0.88 xGD +0.55
  5. Sun 23/08 HNK Hajduk Split A xG 0.50 xGA 1.66 xGD -1.16
  6. Sat 15/08 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb H xG 1.70 xGA 0.92 xGD +0.78
  7. Sat 08/08 NK Rudeš A Best underlying xG 2.76 xGA 0.60 xGD +2.16
  8. Sat 01/08 HNK Gorica A xG 2.70 P xGA 0.82 xGD +1.88

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

NK Osijek in HNL

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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