HNL expected points table 2026/2027
Every HNL club ranked on the points its match-by-match chances were worth, with the position the real table gives it and the distance between the two.
GNK Dinamo Zagreb lead on expected points with 15.62 over 7 matches with xG. NK Osijek sit 2 places higher in the table than their chances place them: 3 against 5 on expected points. HNK Gorica sit 2 places lower in the table than their chances place them: 9 against 7 on expected points.
Table against xPts
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
- Fewer than 3 places apart
Ranked on expected points
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts vs xPts | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb DIN | 7 | 16 | 15.62 | +0.38 | 1 | Same place as on expected points |
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split HAJ | 8 | 16 | 15.45 | +0.55 | 2 | Same place as on expected points |
| 3 | NK Varaždin VAR | 8 | 15 | 14.43 | +0.57 | 4 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 4 | HNK Rijeka RIJ | 7 | 14 | 13.74 | +0.26 | 5 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 5 | NK Osijek OSI | 8 | 16 | 12.24 | +3.76 | 3 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 6 | NK Istra 1961 IST | 8 | 9 | 11.60 | −2.60 | 6 | Same place as on expected points |
| 7 | HNK Gorica GOR | 8 | 5 | 7.64 | −2.64 | 9 | 2 places below its expected-points rank |
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo SLB | 8 | 7 | 7.41 | −0.41 | 8 | Same place as on expected points |
| 9 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb LOK | 8 | 7 | 6.54 | +0.46 | 7 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 10 | NK Rudeš RUD | 8 | 4 | 3.57 | +0.43 | 10 | Same place as on expected points |
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
A gap can come from finishing, goalkeeping, game state or chance. xG and xPts are model estimates, not the result a team deserved.
About these figures What each column measures, and the thresholds this ranking is under. Show Hide
- P
- — Matches played
- Pts
- — Points
- xPts
- — Expected points: the points a team's match-by-match xG would be worth on average.
- Pts vs xPts
- — Actual points minus expected points based on match xG.
- Actual
- — Position in the real table
- Diff
- — Places between this ranking and the real table. Up is a club higher in the real table than its expected points place it.
Every club with expected goals behind it is ranked here: these are season totals rather than rates, so a club is not held back by having played fewer matches. The ranking opens once the median club has played 3.