Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 17:00
6d 17h to kick-offNK Osijek – NK Istra 1961
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NK Osijek
- 52%
- Draw
- 29%
- NK Istra 1961
- 19%
| NK Osijek | Draw | NK Istra 1961 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.94 | 3.45 | 5.13 |
- Total goals
- 2.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans NK Osijek
52% NK Osijek to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 7th
- NK Osijek attack v NK Istra 1961 defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 6th
- NK Osijek defence v NK Istra 1961 attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.37 vs +0.18
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.62 – 0.96
- NK Osijek v NK Istra 1961
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Osijek | NK Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.51 · 4th | 1.44 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 1.28 · 6th | (better) 1.26 · 5th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.23 · 5th | +0.19 · 6th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.53 · 5th | 1.45 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.37 | (better) +0.18 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- NK Osijek clean sheet
- 35%
- NK Osijek 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.9%
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 2:0
- 9.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Osijek sample
- 20 matches
- NK Istra 1961 sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Osijek
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · NK Istra 1961
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.