Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 20:00
Full timeNK Istra 1961 0:1 HNK Gorica
NK Istra 1961 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. HNK Gorica won 1–0. The biggest difference was HNK Gorica's attack: 0.61 xG against 0.96 projected (−0.35).
Goals
- 90' Jakov Pranjić HNK Gorica · 0.07 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- NK Istra 1961
- 43%
- Draw
- 33%
- HNK Gorica
- 25% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
HNK Gorica produced 0.35 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 12
- On target
- 11
- 4
- Inside the box
- 11
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 0.78
- 0.35
- Set-piece xG
- 0.44
- 0.20
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.21 for NK Istra 1961 and 0.54 for HNK Gorica.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 1.77 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- NK Istra 1961
- HNK Gorica
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.33 xG created 1.38 xGA
- D 0.94 created, 1.67 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
- W 2.85 created, 0.30 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
- L 1.19 created, 1.95 conceded against HNK Rijeka
- D 0.84 created, 2.06 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- D 0.30 created, 1.45 conceded against NK Varaždin
- W 1.87 created, 0.84 conceded against NK Rudeš
0.92 xG created 1.18 xGA
- L 1.54 created, 1.13 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- L 1.27 created, 1.20 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
- L 0.93 created, 1.07 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
- D 0.15 created, 0.40 conceded against HNK Rijeka
- L 0.79 created, 1.70 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- D 0.85 created, 1.55 conceded against NK Varaždin
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged5 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | +23.2% | Won |
| NK Istra 1961 not to score | 5.00 | +22.6% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.00 | +18.4% | Won |
| NK Istra 1961 at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +13.3% | Won |
| Draw | 3.40 | +11.5% | Lost |
| HNK Gorica at most 1 goal | 1.33 | +0.3% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Istra 1961 | 42.5% | 49.9% | −7.4 pp | 2.35 |
| Draw | 32.8% | 26.4% | +6.4 pp | 3.05 |
| HNK Gorica | 24.7% | 23.6% | +1.0 pp | 4.05 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Istra 1961 to score | 75.5% | 81.1% | −5.6 pp | 1.32 |
| NK Istra 1961 not to score | 24.5% | 18.9% | +5.6 pp | 4.08 |
| HNK Gorica to score | 64.9% | 64.5% | +0.4 pp | 1.54 |
| HNK Gorica not to score | 35.1% | 35.5% | −0.4 pp | 2.85 |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 53.7% | −2.7 pp | 1.96 |
| Both teams not to score | 49.1% | 46.3% | +2.7 pp | 2.04 |
| NK Istra 1961 2+ goals | 38.2% | 50.0% | −11.8 pp | 2.62 |
| NK Istra 1961 at most 1 goal | 61.8% | 50.0% | +11.8 pp | 1.62 |
| HNK Gorica 2+ goals | 24.7% | 29.1% | −4.4 pp | 4.04 |
| HNK Gorica at most 1 goal | 75.3% | 70.9% | +4.4 pp | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.4% | 76.6% | −6.2 pp | 1.42 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29.6% | 23.4% | +6.2 pp | 3.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.9% | 53.9% | −14.0 pp | 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 46.1% | +14.0 pp | 1.66 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Istra 1961 sample
- 20 matches
- HNK Gorica sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 11 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 11 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.