Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 18:00
Full timeNK Osijek 0:1 NK Rudeš
NK Osijek were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. NK Rudeš won 1–0. The biggest difference was NK Osijek's attack: 0.54 xG against 1.65 projected (−1.11). NK Rudeš produced 1.83 xG against 0.87 projected (+0.96).
Goals
- 81' Cherno Saho NK Rudeš · 0.94 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- NK Osijek
- 55%
- Draw
- 28%
- NK Rudeš
- 17% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
NK Osijek produced 1.11 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 13
- On target
- 3
- 4
- Inside the box
- 8
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.04
- 0.14
- Open play xG
- 0.50
- 1.61
- Set-piece xG
- 0.05
- 0.19
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.84 for NK Rudeš.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 2.34 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- NK Osijek
- NK Rudeš
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.13 xG created 1.56 xGA
- W 1.43 created, 0.88 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
- L 0.35 created, 2.66 conceded against HNK Rijeka
- W 2.05 created, 1.90 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- D 0.59 created, 0.81 conceded against NK Varaždin
- L 0.73 created, 2.58 conceded against NK Istra 1961
- D 1.65 created, 0.52 conceded against HNK Gorica
0.68 xG created 1.74 xGA
- L 0.36 created, 1.93 conceded against NK Varaždin
- L 0.12 created, 2.32 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
- L 0.84 created, 1.87 conceded against NK Istra 1961
- D 0.48 created, 1.99 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
- W 1.61 created, 1.25 conceded against HNK Gorica
- L 0.67 created, 1.08 conceded against HNK Rijeka
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 qualified edges flagged4 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Osijek not to score | 8.00 | +33.8% | Won |
| NK Osijek at most 1 goal | 2.63 | +29.2% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | +26.9% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.00 | +21.2% | Won |
| Draw | 4.20 | +18.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Osijek | 55.1% | 63.1% | −8.0 pp | 1.81 |
| Draw | 28.2% | 21.3% | +6.9 pp | 3.54 |
| NK Rudeš | 16.7% | 15.6% | +1.1 pp | 6.00 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Osijek to score | 83.3% | 88.1% | −4.8 pp | 1.20 |
| NK Osijek not to score | 16.7% | 11.9% | +4.8 pp | 5.98 |
| NK Rudeš to score | 60.8% | 57.7% | +3.2 pp | 1.64 |
| NK Rudeš not to score | 39.2% | 42.3% | −3.2 pp | 2.55 |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 53.7% | −1.3 pp | 1.91 |
| Both teams not to score | 47.7% | 46.3% | +1.3 pp | 2.10 |
| NK Osijek 2+ goals | 50.8% | 64.5% | −13.7 pp | 1.97 |
| NK Osijek at most 1 goal | 49.2% | 35.5% | +13.7 pp | 2.03 |
| NK Rudeš 2+ goals | 21.1% | 23.4% | −2.3 pp | 4.74 |
| NK Rudeš at most 1 goal | 78.9% | 76.6% | +2.3 pp | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | 81.1% | −5.3 pp | 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.2% | 18.9% | +5.3 pp | 4.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | 61.0% | −13.9 pp | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 39.0% | +13.9 pp | 1.89 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Osijek sample
- 20 matches
- NK Rudeš sample
- 10 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.