Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeNK Rudeš 0:4 HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was NK Rudeš's attack: 0.12 xG against 1.08 projected (−0.96). HNK Hajduk Split produced 2.32 xG against 1.47 projected (+0.85).
Goals
- 4' Michele Šego HNK Hajduk Split · 0.69 xG chance 0–1
- 28' Michele Šego (pen.) HNK Hajduk Split · 0.82 xG chance 0–2
- 48' Marin Šotiček HNK Hajduk Split · 0.04 xG chance 0–3
- 87' Khalil Fayad HNK Hajduk Split · 0.07 xG chance 0–4
The model against the result
- NK Rudeš
- 25%
- Draw
- 31%
- HNK Hajduk Split
- 45% What happened
Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
NK Rudeš produced 0.96 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 3
- 18
- On target
- 0
- 6
- Inside the box
- 1
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.04
- 0.13
- Open play xG
- 0.10
- 1.11
- Set-piece xG
- 0.01
- 0.46
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.12 for NK Rudeš and 1.53 for HNK Hajduk Split.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
21 shots · 2.50 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- NK Rudeš
- HNK Hajduk Split
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.66 xG created 2.29 xGA
1.88 xG created 0.92 xGA
- D 3.39 created, 1.50 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- L 1.16 created, 0.90 conceded against NK Varaždin
- D 1.67 created, 0.94 conceded against NK Istra 1961
- W 1.20 created, 1.27 conceded against HNK Gorica
- W 1.66 created, 0.50 conceded against NK Osijek
- W 2.18 created, 0.40 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged0 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Rudeš to win | 7.50 | +86.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.25 | +60.3% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | +29.7% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.50 | +28.5% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | +8.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Rudeš | 24.9% | 12.0% | +12.9 pp | 4.02 |
| Draw | 30.5% | 17.1% | +13.4 pp | 3.28 |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 44.6% | 70.9% | −26.3 pp | 2.24 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | 48.5% | +8.3 pp | 1.76 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.2% | 51.5% | −8.3 pp | 2.32 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | 82.8% | −6.2 pp | 1.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.4% | 17.2% | +6.2 pp | 4.28 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.1% | 62.5% | −14.4 pp | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.9% | 37.5% | +14.4 pp | 1.93 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Rudeš sample
- 5 matches
- HNK Hajduk Split sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- NK Rudeš has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.