NK Rudeš 4:1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: xG & match report · HNL

Friday, 21/08/2026 at 20:00

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Match report · HNL

NK Rudeš Home 1.69 xG · 14 shots

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Away 1.03 xG · 7 shots

41 The scoreline reflected the chances

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. NK Rudeš won 4–1. The biggest difference was NK Rudeš's attack: 1.69 xG against 1.28 projected (+0.41). NK Lokomotiva Zagreb produced 1.03 xG against 1.30 projected (−0.27).

Goals

28' Noa Skoko NK Rudeš · 0.07 xG chance 1–0
40' Dušan Vuković NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 0.64 xG chance 1–1
53' Xavier Fernandes NK Rudeš · 0.56 xG chance 2–1
58' Josip Bralic NK Rudeš · 0.13 xG chance 3–1
65' Ivan Đorić NK Rudeš · 0.61 xG chance 4–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Rudeš: 34% What happened
Draw: 31%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: 35%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Rudeš 1.28 1.69 +0.41

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.30 1.03 -0.27

NK Rudeš produced 0.41 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Rudeš NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Shots: 14; 7
On target: 6; 1
Inside the box: 10; 4
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.15
Open play xG: 0.90; 0.93
Set-piece xG: 0.82; 0.13
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.69 for NK Rudeš and 1.03 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 2.78 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

NK Rudeš
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Rudeš

0.42 xG created 2.82 xGA

L 0.28 created, 2.33 conceded against HNK Rijeka
L 0.60 created, 2.76 conceded against NK Osijek
L 0.39 created, 3.38 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

0.99 xG created 1.76 xGA

D 0.29 created, 0.75 conceded against NK Varaždin
D 1.50 created, 3.39 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
D 0.95 created, 0.82 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
W 1.16 created, 2.35 conceded against NK Istra 1961
W 1.13 created, 1.54 conceded against HNK Gorica
L 0.92 created, 1.70 conceded against NK Osijek

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged5 won3 lost

Won
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Rudeš against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
NK Rudeš to win	6.00	+103.4%	Won
NK Rudeš 2+ goals	5.00	+86.9%	Won
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb not to score	7.00	+71.3%	Lost
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at most 1 goal	2.50	+54.4%	Won
Draw	4.20	+30.5%	Lost
NK Rudeš to score	1.73	+29.3%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+7.3%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.83	+7.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Rudeš	33.9%	14.9%	+19.0 pp	2.95
Draw	31.1%	21.3%	+9.8 pp	3.22
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	35.0%	63.8%	−28.8 pp	2.85

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Rudeš to score	74.9%	53.7%	+21.2 pp	1.34
NK Rudeš not to score	25.1%	46.3%	−21.2 pp	3.98
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb to score	75.5%	86.4%	−10.9 pp	1.32
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb not to score	24.5%	13.6%	+10.9 pp	4.09
Both teams to score	58.4%	50.0%	+8.4 pp	1.71
Both teams not to score	41.6%	50.0%	−8.4 pp	2.40
NK Rudeš 2+ goals	37.4%	18.9%	+18.5 pp	2.68
NK Rudeš at most 1 goal	62.6%	81.1%	−18.5 pp	1.60
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals	38.2%	62.5%	−24.3 pp	2.61
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at most 1 goal	61.8%	37.5%	+24.3 pp	1.62
Over 1.5 goals	77.1%	76.6%	+0.5 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	22.9%	23.4%	−0.5 pp	4.37
Over 2.5 goals	48.9%	55.3%	−6.4 pp	2.05
Under 2.5 goals	51.1%	44.7%	+6.4 pp	1.96

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Rudeš sample: 3 matches
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

NK Rudeš has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.