Monday, 31/08/2026 at 18:30
Full timeHNK Hajduk Split 2:0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 62%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's attack: 0.40 xG against 0.83 projected (−0.43). HNK Hajduk Split produced 2.18 xG against 1.88 projected (+0.30).
Goals
- 16' Michele Šego HNK Hajduk Split · 0.59 xG chance 1–0
- 55' Marin Šotiček HNK Hajduk Split · 0.02 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- HNK Hajduk Split
- 62% What happened
- Draw
- 25%
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 13%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb produced 0.43 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 28
- 7
- On target
- 13
- 2
- Inside the box
- 15
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 2.08
- 0.38
- Set-piece xG
- 0.13
- 0.02
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.19 for HNK Hajduk Split.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
35 shots · 2.61 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- HNK Hajduk Split
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.56 xG created 1.27 xGA
- L 0.26 created, 2.53 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- D 3.39 created, 1.50 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- L 1.16 created, 0.90 conceded against NK Varaždin
- D 1.67 created, 0.94 conceded against NK Istra 1961
- W 1.20 created, 1.27 conceded against HNK Gorica
- W 1.66 created, 0.50 conceded against NK Osijek
1.12 xG created 1.92 xGA
- D 1.50 created, 3.39 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
- D 0.95 created, 0.82 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- W 1.16 created, 2.35 conceded against NK Istra 1961
- W 1.13 created, 1.54 conceded against HNK Gorica
- L 0.92 created, 1.70 conceded against NK Osijek
- L 1.03 created, 1.69 conceded against NK Rudeš
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | +7.7% | Won |
| HNK Hajduk Split at most 1 goal | 2.50 | +5.2% | Lost |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at most 1 goal | 1.25 | +0.4% | Won |
| Draw | 4.00 | +0.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | 61.8% | 63.5% | −1.7 pp | 1.62 |
| Draw | 25.0% | 22.2% | +2.8 pp | 4.00 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 13.2% | 14.2% | −1.0 pp | 7.58 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split to score | 86.8% | 86.4% | +0.4 pp | 1.15 |
| HNK Hajduk Split not to score | 13.2% | 13.6% | −0.4 pp | 7.59 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb to score | 59.1% | 58.9% | +0.2 pp | 1.69 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb not to score | 40.9% | 41.1% | −0.2 pp | 2.44 |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | 51.5% | +1.3 pp | 1.89 |
| Both teams not to score | 47.2% | 48.5% | −1.3 pp | 2.12 |
| HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals | 57.9% | 62.5% | −4.6 pp | 1.73 |
| HNK Hajduk Split at most 1 goal | 42.1% | 37.5% | +4.6 pp | 2.38 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals | 19.7% | 25.0% | −5.3 pp | 5.09 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at most 1 goal | 80.3% | 75.0% | +5.3 pp | 1.24 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | 79.2% | −0.1 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.9% | 20.8% | +0.1 pp | 4.78 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 58.2% | −6.1 pp | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 41.8% | +6.1 pp | 2.09 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- HNK Hajduk Split sample
- 20 matches
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.