NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1:1 HNK Rijeka: xG & match report · HNL

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 20:00

Full time

Match report · HNL

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Home 0.39 xG · 7 shots

HNK Rijeka Away 2.01 xG · 23 shots

11 HNK Rijeka had the better chances, but it finished level

HNK Rijeka were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was HNK Rijeka's attack: 2.01 xG against 1.47 projected (+0.54). NK Lokomotiva Zagreb produced 0.39 xG against 0.84 projected (−0.45).

Goals

52' Tiago Dantas HNK Rijeka · 0.13 xG chance 0–1
65' Marko Vešović NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 0.08 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: 18%
Draw: 31% What happened
HNK Rijeka: 51%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.84 0.39 -0.45

HNK Rijeka 1.47 2.01 +0.54

HNK Rijeka produced 0.54 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNK Rijeka

Shots: 7; 23
On target: 3; 5
Inside the box: 5; 17
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.09
Open play xG: 0.29; 1.74
Set-piece xG: 0.10; 0.25
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.01 for HNK Rijeka.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 2.38 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNK Rijeka
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.10 xG created 1.81 xGA

W 1.16 created, 2.35 conceded against NK Istra 1961
W 1.13 created, 1.54 conceded against HNK Gorica
L 0.92 created, 1.70 conceded against NK Osijek
L 1.03 created, 1.69 conceded against NK Rudeš
L 0.40 created, 2.18 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
L 1.95 created, 1.37 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo

HNK Rijeka

1.58 xG created 0.64 xGA

W 1.40 created, 0.14 conceded against HNK Gorica
W 2.33 created, 0.28 conceded against NK Rudeš
L 0.72 created, 1.75 conceded against NK Varaždin
W 1.95 created, 1.19 conceded against NK Istra 1961
D 0.40 created, 0.15 conceded against HNK Gorica
W 2.66 created, 0.35 conceded against NK Osijek

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: 0 won · 2 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost

Won
Won
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Lokomotiva Zagreb against HNK Rijeka before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
HNK Rijeka at most 1 goal	2.10	+16.5%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.95	+14.5%	Won
Draw	3.70	+13.1%	Won
HNK Rijeka not to score	5.50	+12.0%	Lost
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb to win	5.50	+1.5%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.50	+0.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	18.5%	16.3%	+2.2 pp	5.42
Draw	30.6%	24.2%	+6.4 pp	3.27
HNK Rijeka	51.0%	59.6%	−8.6 pp	1.96

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb to score	59.5%	55.7%	+3.7 pp	1.68
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb not to score	40.5%	44.3%	−3.7 pp	2.47
HNK Rijeka to score	79.6%	82.8%	−3.2 pp	1.26
HNK Rijeka not to score	20.4%	17.2%	+3.2 pp	4.91
Both teams to score	49.2%	48.5%	+0.6 pp	2.03
Both teams not to score	50.8%	51.5%	−0.6 pp	1.97
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals	20.0%	21.7%	−1.7 pp	5.00
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at most 1 goal	80.0%	78.3%	+1.7 pp	1.25
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals	44.5%	55.7%	−11.2 pp	2.25
HNK Rijeka at most 1 goal	55.5%	44.3%	+11.2 pp	1.80
Over 1.5 goals	71.3%	73.7%	−2.4 pp	1.40
Under 1.5 goals	28.7%	26.3%	+2.4 pp	3.48
Over 2.5 goals	41.3%	51.3%	−10.0 pp	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	58.7%	48.7%	+10.0 pp	1.70

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb sample: 20 matches
HNK Rijeka sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.