Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 21:00
Full timeNK Slaven Belupo 2:1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Slaven Belupo were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's attack: 1.95 xG against 1.06 projected (+0.89).
Goals
- 48' Dominik Kovačić NK Slaven Belupo · 0.12 xG chance 1–0
- 53' Ilija Nestorovski NK Slaven Belupo · 0.18 xG chance 2–0
- 87' Noel Đurković NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 0.74 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- NK Slaven Belupo
- 44% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 25%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb produced 0.89 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 12
- On target
- 5
- 3
- Inside the box
- 15
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.15
- Open play xG
- 0.44
- 1.46
- Set-piece xG
- 0.99
- 0.32
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.41 for NK Slaven Belupo and 1.73 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 3.21 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- NK Slaven Belupo
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.74 xG created 2.07 xGA
- L 0.74 created, 2.06 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- L 0.49 created, 2.64 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- L 0.95 created, 2.49 conceded against NK Varaždin
- L 0.30 created, 2.85 conceded against NK Istra 1961
- W 1.07 created, 0.93 conceded against HNK Gorica
- L 0.88 created, 1.43 conceded against NK Osijek
0.93 xG created 1.71 xGA
- D 0.95 created, 0.82 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- W 1.16 created, 2.35 conceded against NK Istra 1961
- W 1.13 created, 1.54 conceded against HNK Gorica
- L 0.92 created, 1.70 conceded against NK Osijek
- L 1.03 created, 1.69 conceded against NK Rudeš
- L 0.40 created, 2.18 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +11.8% | Lost |
| NK Slaven Belupo to win | 2.45 | +8.2% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.33 | +5.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Slaven Belupo | 44.2% | 36.7% | +7.5 pp | 2.26 |
| Draw | 30.9% | 28.1% | +2.8 pp | 3.24 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 25.0% | 35.2% | −10.3 pp | 4.01 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 58.9% | −3.1 pp | 1.79 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.2% | 41.1% | +3.1 pp | 2.26 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.6% | 78.3% | −2.7 pp | 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.4% | 21.7% | +2.7 pp | 4.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.8% | 55.3% | −8.5 pp | 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.2% | 44.7% | +8.5 pp | 1.88 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Slaven Belupo sample
- 20 matches
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.