NK Istra 1961 2:2 HNK Hajduk Split: xG & match report · HNL

Monday, 26/10/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · HNL

NK Istra 1961 Home 1.55 xG · 13 shots

HNK Hajduk Split Away 1.46 xG · 14 shots

22 The chances were evenly matched

HNK Hajduk Split were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was NK Istra 1961's attack: 1.55 xG against 1.06 projected (+0.49).

Goals

7' Khalil Fayad HNK Hajduk Split · 0.15 xG chance 0–1
54' Michele Šego HNK Hajduk Split · 0.22 xG chance 0–2
66' Hamza Jaganjac NK Istra 1961 · 0.22 xG chance 1–2
81' Emil Frederiksen (pen.) NK Istra 1961 · 0.82 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Istra 1961: 27%
Draw: 32% What happened
HNK Hajduk Split: 41%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Istra 1961 1.06 1.55 +0.49

HNK Hajduk Split 1.34 1.46 +0.12

NK Istra 1961 produced 0.49 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Istra 1961 HNK Hajduk Split

Shots: 13; 14
On target: 4; 6
Inside the box: 12; 8
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.11
Open play xG: 0.62; 0.88
Set-piece xG: 0.16; 0.61
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.80 for NK Istra 1961 and 1.47 for HNK Hajduk Split.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 3.09 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

NK Istra 1961
HNK Hajduk Split
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Istra 1961

1.23 xG created 1.19 xGA

D 0.84 created, 2.06 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
D 0.30 created, 1.45 conceded against NK Varaždin
W 1.87 created, 0.84 conceded against NK Rudeš
L 1.21 created, 0.61 conceded against HNK Gorica
W 2.58 created, 0.73 conceded against NK Osijek
L 0.56 created, 1.45 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

HNK Hajduk Split

1.48 xG created 0.69 xGA

W 2.18 created, 0.40 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
W 2.32 created, 0.12 conceded against NK Rudeš
W 0.68 created, 0.36 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
L 1.28 created, 1.46 conceded against HNK Rijeka
W 1.05 created, 0.63 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
W 1.35 created, 1.19 conceded against NK Varaždin

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

NK Istra 1961: 1 won · 1 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 qualified edges flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Istra 1961 against HNK Hajduk Split before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
HNK Hajduk Split not to score	6.50	+52.7%	Lost
HNK Hajduk Split at most 1 goal	2.25	+35.9%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+33.2%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	+32.3%	Lost
Draw	3.70	+18.5%	Won
NK Istra 1961 to win	4.10	+9.6%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.25	+3.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Istra 1961	26.7%	21.8%	+5.0 pp	3.74
Draw	32.0%	24.1%	+7.9 pp	3.12
HNK Hajduk Split	41.3%	54.1%	−12.9 pp	2.42

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Istra 1961 to score	68.2%	68.7%	−0.6 pp	1.47
NK Istra 1961 not to score	31.8%	31.3%	+0.6 pp	3.14
HNK Hajduk Split to score	76.5%	85.4%	−8.9 pp	1.31
HNK Hajduk Split not to score	23.5%	14.6%	+8.9 pp	4.26
Both teams to score	54.1%	58.9%	−4.8 pp	1.85
Both teams not to score	45.9%	41.1%	+4.8 pp	2.18
NK Istra 1961 2+ goals	28.6%	33.7%	−5.2 pp	3.50
NK Istra 1961 at most 1 goal	71.4%	66.3%	+5.2 pp	1.40
HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals	39.6%	58.9%	−19.3 pp	2.53
HNK Hajduk Split at most 1 goal	60.4%	41.1%	+19.3 pp	1.66
Over 1.5 goals	73.4%	81.1%	−7.7 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.6%	18.9%	+7.7 pp	3.76
Over 2.5 goals	43.7%	59.9%	−16.2 pp	2.29
Under 2.5 goals	56.3%	40.1%	+16.2 pp	1.78

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Istra 1961 sample: 20 matches
HNK Hajduk Split sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.