HNK Rijeka 3:0 HNK Hajduk Split: xG & match report · HNL

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · HNL

HNK Rijeka Home 1.46 xG · 7 shots

HNK Hajduk Split Away 1.28 xG · 13 shots

30 The chances were evenly matched

HNK Rijeka were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was HNK Hajduk Split's attack: 1.28 xG against 0.80 projected (+0.48).

Goals

35' Tiago Dantas HNK Rijeka · 0.30 xG chance 1–0
45' Samuele Vignato HNK Rijeka · 0.38 xG chance 2–0
57' Daniel Adu-Adjei HNK Rijeka · 0.28 xG chance 3–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

HNK Rijeka: 46% What happened
Draw: 33%
HNK Hajduk Split: 21%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

HNK Rijeka 1.28 1.46 +0.18

HNK Hajduk Split 0.80 1.28 +0.48

HNK Hajduk Split produced 0.48 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

HNK Rijeka HNK Hajduk Split

Shots: 7; 13
On target: 4; 7
Inside the box: 4; 6
xG per shot: 0.21; 0.10
Open play xG: 1.06; 1.29
Set-piece xG: 0.42; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.46 for HNK Rijeka and 1.28 for HNK Hajduk Split.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 2.77 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

HNK Rijeka
HNK Hajduk Split
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

HNK Rijeka

1.68 xG created 0.69 xGA

W 2.33 created, 0.28 conceded against NK Rudeš
L 0.72 created, 1.75 conceded against NK Varaždin
W 1.95 created, 1.19 conceded against NK Istra 1961
D 0.40 created, 0.15 conceded against HNK Gorica
W 2.66 created, 0.35 conceded against NK Osijek
D 2.01 created, 0.39 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

HNK Hajduk Split

1.62 xG created 0.60 xGA

D 1.67 created, 0.94 conceded against NK Istra 1961
W 1.20 created, 1.27 conceded against HNK Gorica
W 1.66 created, 0.50 conceded against NK Osijek
W 2.18 created, 0.40 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
W 2.32 created, 0.12 conceded against NK Rudeš
W 0.68 created, 0.36 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

HNK Rijeka: 1 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged3 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on HNK Rijeka against HNK Hajduk Split before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	1.85	+21.0%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.50	+20.1%	Lost
HNK Hajduk Split not to score	2.75	+14.7%	Won
HNK Hajduk Split at most 1 goal	1.40	+14.2%	Won
Both teams not to score	2.00	+9.0%	Won
Draw	3.25	+8.7%	Lost
HNK Rijeka at most 1 goal	1.67	+4.7%	Lost
HNK Rijeka not to score	4.00	+1.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
HNK Rijeka	46.0%	44.8%	+1.2 pp	2.17
Draw	33.5%	27.6%	+5.9 pp	2.99
HNK Hajduk Split	20.5%	27.6%	−7.1 pp	4.87

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
HNK Rijeka to score	74.7%	76.6%	−1.9 pp	1.34
HNK Rijeka not to score	25.3%	23.4%	+1.9 pp	3.96
HNK Hajduk Split to score	58.3%	66.3%	−8.0 pp	1.72
HNK Hajduk Split not to score	41.7%	33.7%	+8.0 pp	2.40
Both teams to score	45.5%	53.7%	−8.1 pp	2.20
Both teams not to score	54.5%	46.3%	+8.1 pp	1.84
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals	37.2%	44.3%	−7.1 pp	2.69
HNK Rijeka at most 1 goal	62.8%	55.7%	+7.1 pp	1.59
HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals	18.4%	33.7%	−15.3 pp	5.42
HNK Hajduk Split at most 1 goal	81.6%	66.3%	+15.3 pp	1.23
Over 1.5 goals	65.7%	73.7%	−8.0 pp	1.52
Under 1.5 goals	34.3%	26.3%	+8.0 pp	2.91
Over 2.5 goals	34.6%	48.7%	−14.1 pp	2.89
Under 2.5 goals	65.4%	51.3%	+14.1 pp	1.53

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
HNK Rijeka sample: 20 matches
HNK Hajduk Split sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.