Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 20:00
Full timeHNK Hajduk Split 1:0 NK Slaven Belupo
HNK Hajduk Split were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 67%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was HNK Hajduk Split's attack: 0.68 xG against 2.05 projected (−1.37). NK Slaven Belupo produced 0.36 xG against 0.80 projected (−0.44).
Goals
- 22' Dalisson de Almeida HNK Hajduk Split · 0.15 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- HNK Hajduk Split
- 67% What happened
- Draw
- 23%
- NK Slaven Belupo
- 11%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
HNK Hajduk Split produced 1.37 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 9
- 7
- On target
- 1
- 2
- Inside the box
- 5
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 0.63
- 0.23
- Set-piece xG
- 0.05
- 0.13
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
16 shots · 1.04 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- HNK Hajduk Split
- NK Slaven Belupo
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.70 xG created 0.69 xGA
- L 1.16 created, 0.90 conceded against NK Varaždin
- D 1.67 created, 0.94 conceded against NK Istra 1961
- W 1.20 created, 1.27 conceded against HNK Gorica
- W 1.66 created, 0.50 conceded against NK Osijek
- W 2.18 created, 0.40 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- W 2.32 created, 0.12 conceded against NK Rudeš
0.84 xG created 2.05 xGA
- L 0.49 created, 2.64 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- L 0.95 created, 2.49 conceded against NK Varaždin
- L 0.30 created, 2.85 conceded against NK Istra 1961
- W 1.07 created, 0.93 conceded against HNK Gorica
- L 0.88 created, 1.43 conceded against NK Osijek
- W 1.37 created, 1.95 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged5 won2 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | +49.8% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 8.00 | +47.5% | Won |
| HNK Hajduk Split not to score | 13.00 | +41.4% | Lost |
| HNK Hajduk Split at most 1 goal | 3.75 | +38.8% | Won |
| Draw | 5.75 | +30.6% | Lost |
| NK Slaven Belupo at most 1 goal | 1.29 | +5.0% | Won |
| NK Slaven Belupo not to score | 2.50 | +4.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | 66.5% | 72.3% | −5.7 pp | 1.50 |
| Draw | 22.7% | 15.7% | +7.0 pp | 4.40 |
| NK Slaven Belupo | 10.8% | 12.0% | −1.3 pp | 9.28 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split to score | 89.1% | 92.6% | −3.5 pp | 1.12 |
| HNK Hajduk Split not to score | 10.9% | 7.4% | +3.5 pp | 9.20 |
| NK Slaven Belupo to score | 58.2% | 62.5% | −4.3 pp | 1.72 |
| NK Slaven Belupo not to score | 41.8% | 37.5% | +4.3 pp | 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 51.5% | +1.8 pp | 1.88 |
| Both teams not to score | 46.7% | 48.5% | −1.8 pp | 2.14 |
| HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals | 63.0% | 75.0% | −12.0 pp | 1.59 |
| HNK Hajduk Split at most 1 goal | 37.0% | 25.0% | +12.0 pp | 2.70 |
| NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals | 18.4% | 26.9% | −8.5 pp | 5.44 |
| NK Slaven Belupo at most 1 goal | 81.6% | 73.1% | +8.5 pp | 1.23 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | 88.1% | −6.5 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.4% | 11.9% | +6.5 pp | 5.42 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.9% | 71.8% | −15.9 pp | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.1% | 28.2% | +15.9 pp | 2.27 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- HNK Hajduk Split sample
- 20 matches
- NK Slaven Belupo sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.