Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 17:00
6d 17h to kick-offHNK Hajduk Split – GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- HNK Hajduk Split
- 38%
- Draw
- 32%
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- 30%
| HNK Hajduk Split | Draw | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.65 | 3.13 | 3.30 |
- Total goals
- 2.44
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans HNK Hajduk Split
38% HNK Hajduk Split to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 3rd
- HNK Hajduk Split attack v GNK Dinamo Zagreb defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 1st
- HNK Hajduk Split defence v GNK Dinamo Zagreb attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.87 vs +1.19
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.29 – 1.15
- HNK Hajduk Split v GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | HNK Hajduk Split | GNK Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.52 · 3rd | (better) 2.24 · 1st |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.74 · 1st | 0.91 · 4th |
| xGD / match | +0.78 · 3rd | (better) +1.32 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.93 · 3rd | (better) 2.23 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.87 | (better) +1.19 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- HNK Hajduk Split clean sheet
- 29%
- HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.4%
- 2:1
- 9.7%
- 0:0
- 9.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- HNK Hajduk Split sample
- 20 matches
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · HNK Hajduk Split
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.