Expected goals
HNK Vukovar 1991 expected goals (xG) 2025/2026
HNL · after 35 matches · updated 1 Oct
HNK Vukovar 1991's attacking and defensive expected goals in HNL 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.
HNK Vukovar 1991 xG and xGA per match
Every match ↓
Attack
Expected goals (xG)
The quality of chances created, summed. Per match = total ÷ matches with xG.
1.04
xG per match
#8/10
of 10
| Rank | Club | xG per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 1.88 |
| #2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1.87 |
| #3 | HNK Rijeka | 1.58 |
| #4 | HNK Gorica | 1.30 |
| #5 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1.28 |
| #6 | NK Varaždin | 1.25 |
| #7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 1.17 |
| #8 | HNK Vukovar 1991 | 1.04 |
| #9 | NK Osijek | 1.03 |
| #10 | NK Istra 1961 | 1.02 |
- League avg
- 1.34
- Total
- 36.50 35 matches
Defence
Expected goals against (xGA)
The quality of chances conceded. Ranked lowest first, and drawn with better to the right.
1.80
xGA per match
#9/10
of 10
| Rank | Club | xGA per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 0.77 |
| #2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1.01 |
| #3 | HNK Rijeka | 1.01 |
| #4 | NK Osijek | 1.18 |
| #5 | NK Varaždin | 1.36 |
| #6 | HNK Gorica | 1.42 |
| #7 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1.45 |
| #8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 1.62 |
| #9 | HNK Vukovar 1991 | 1.80 |
| #10 | NK Istra 1961 | 1.82 |
- League avg
- 1.34
- Total
- 62.83 35 matches
xG difference
xG difference (xGD)
xG minus xGA. Positive means creating more than conceding; the league average is 0.00.
-0.75
xGD per match
#9/10
of 10
| Rank | Club | xGD per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | +1.11 |
| #2 | HNK Hajduk Split | +0.87 |
| #3 | HNK Rijeka | +0.57 |
| #4 | NK Varaždin | -0.10 |
| #5 | HNK Gorica | -0.12 |
| #6 | NK Osijek | -0.16 |
| #7 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | -0.17 |
| #8 | NK Slaven Belupo | -0.46 |
| #9 | HNK Vukovar 1991 | -0.75 |
| #10 | NK Istra 1961 | -0.80 |
- League avg
- 0.00
- Total
- -26.33 35 matches
Expected points
Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
Expected points (xPts)
Model output: the points a side would average with these chances. See how it works.
0.92
xPts per match
#9/10
of 10
| Rank | Club | xPts per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 2.02 |
| #2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1.92 |
| #3 | HNK Rijeka | 1.74 |
| #4 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1.32 |
| #5 | NK Varaždin | 1.31 |
| #6 | NK Osijek | 1.30 |
| #7 | HNK Gorica | 1.26 |
| #8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 1.15 |
| #9 | HNK Vukovar 1991 | 0.92 |
| #10 | NK Istra 1961 | 0.89 |
- League avg
- 1.38
- Total
- 32.36 vs 28 actual pts
What the xG says
HNK Vukovar 1991's underlying numbers are among the weakest in HNL. They rank #9 for xG difference at -0.75 per match, from the league's lowest shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 34 goals are 2.50 below 36.50 xG, while 28 points are 4.36 below 32.36 xPts.
Actual vs expected
Measure
Actual
Expected
Difference
Reading
Goals vs xG
Includes 4.25 xG from penalties
34
36.50
-2.50
scored 2.50 fewer than xG
within normal variance
28
32.36
-4.36
4.36 points below xPts
within normal variance
Select a row to chart it across the season.
Goals minus xG, match by match
HNK Vukovar 1991 are 2.50 goals below their xG after 35 matches. The gap was widest at -2.54, against HNK Gorica on Wed 22/04.
- Goals
- 34
- xG
- 36.50
- Gap
- -2.50
- This match
- Match gap
- Running gap
| Date | Opponent | Goals | xG | Match gap | Running gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 01/08 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 0 | 0.38 | -0.38 | -0.38 |
| Fri 08/08 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 0 | 0.28 | -0.28 | -0.66 |
| Fri 15/08 | NK Istra 1961 | 1 | 1.41 | -0.41 | -1.07 |
| Fri 22/08 | HNK Gorica | 2 | 1.09 | +0.91 | -0.16 |
| Sat 30/08 | NK Slaven Belupo | 1 | 1.48 | -0.48 | -0.64 |
| Sun 14/09 | NK Osijek | 0 | 0.99 | -0.99 | -1.63 |
| Mon 22/09 | HNK Rijeka | 3 | 2.42 | +0.58 | -1.05 |
| Fri 26/09 | NK Varaždin | 1 | 0.65 | +0.35 | -0.70 |
| Sat 04/10 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0 | 0.65 | -0.65 | -1.35 |
| Fri 17/10 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1 | 0.51 | +0.49 | -0.86 |
| Mon 27/10 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 1.60 | -0.60 | -1.46 |
| Sat 01/11 | NK Istra 1961 | 1 | 0.66 | +0.34 | -1.12 |
| Fri 07/11 | HNK Gorica | 1 | 1.07 | -0.07 | -1.19 |
| Fri 21/11 | NK Slaven Belupo | 1 | 1.44 | -0.44 | -1.63 |
| Fri 28/11 | NK Osijek | 2 | 0.82 | +1.18 | -0.45 |
| Sat 06/12 | HNK Rijeka | 1 | 0.36 | +0.64 | +0.19 |
| Fri 12/12 | NK Varaždin | 2 | 2.17 | -0.17 | +0.02 |
| Sun 21/12 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1 | 0.18 | +0.82 | +0.84 |
| Sat 24/01 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1 | 1.85 | -0.85 | -0.01 |
| Mon 02/02 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0.30 | +0.70 | +0.69 |
| Sat 07/02 | NK Istra 1961 | 3 | 3.19 | -0.19 | +0.50 |
| Sun 15/02 | HNK Gorica | 0 | 0.65 | -0.65 | -0.15 |
| Fri 20/02 | NK Slaven Belupo | 2 | 1.89 | +0.11 | -0.04 |
| Sat 28/02 | NK Osijek | 0 | 0.27 | -0.27 | -0.31 |
| Sun 08/03 | HNK Rijeka | 0 | 0.61 | -0.61 | -0.92 |
| Fri 13/03 | NK Varaždin | 0 | 0.50 | -0.50 | -1.42 |
| Sat 21/03 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0 | 0.55 | -0.55 | -1.97 |
| Tue 07/04 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1 | 0.51 | +0.49 | -1.48 |
| Mon 13/04 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 1.70 | -0.70 | -2.18 |
| Sat 18/04 | NK Istra 1961 | 2 | 1.97 | +0.03 | -2.15 |
| Wed 22/04 | HNK Gorica | 1 | 1.39 | -0.39 | -2.54 |
| Sat 25/04 | NK Slaven Belupo | 2 | 1.51 | +0.49 | -2.05 |
| Sat 02/05 | NK Osijek | 1 | 0.48 | +0.52 | -1.53 |
| Fri 08/05 | HNK Rijeka | 0 | 0.27 | -0.27 | -1.80 |
| Fri 15/05 | NK Varaždin | 0 | 0.70 | -0.70 | -2.50 |
HNK Vukovar 1991 xG trend
Current form -0.66 npxGD per match
The last 6 matches with xG.
Out-created the opponent in 9 of 35 matches. The worst was against HNK Hajduk Split on Sat 21/03 (-3.47).
- npxG · last 6
- 0.80
- npxGA · last 6
- 1.46
- npxG
- npxGA
- npxGD
- Avg so far
| Date | Opponent | npxG | npxGA | npxGD | Avg so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 01/08 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 0.39 | 1.08 | -0.69 | -0.69 |
| Fri 08/08 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 0.28 | 3.38 | -3.10 | -1.90 |
| Fri 15/08 | NK Istra 1961 | 1.41 | 1.41 | +0.00 | -1.26 |
| Fri 22/08 | HNK Gorica | 1.09 | 2.87 | -1.78 | -1.39 |
| Sat 30/08 | NK Slaven Belupo | 1.52 | 1.47 | +0.05 | -1.10 |
| Sun 14/09 | NK Osijek | 0.99 | 1.46 | -0.47 | -1.00 |
| Mon 22/09 | HNK Rijeka | 1.10 | 2.29 | -1.19 | -1.03 |
| Fri 26/09 | NK Varaždin | 0.65 | 1.32 | -0.67 | -0.98 |
| Sat 04/10 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0.64 | 1.91 | -1.27 | -1.01 |
| Fri 17/10 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 0.54 | 1.44 | -0.90 | -1.00 |
| Mon 27/10 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 1.64 | 0.37 | +1.27 | -0.80 |
| Sat 01/11 | NK Istra 1961 | 0.70 | 1.49 | -0.79 | -0.80 |
| Fri 07/11 | HNK Gorica | 1.07 | 1.46 | -0.39 | -0.76 |
| Fri 21/11 | NK Slaven Belupo | 0.65 | 2.41 | -1.76 | -0.84 |
| Fri 28/11 | NK Osijek | 0.78 | 2.45 | -1.67 | -0.89 |
| Sat 06/12 | HNK Rijeka | 0.36 | 1.22 | -0.86 | -0.89 |
| Fri 12/12 | NK Varaždin | 2.18 | 0.84 | +1.34 | -0.76 |
| Sun 21/12 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0.18 | 2.98 | -2.80 | -0.87 |
| Sat 24/01 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1.07 | 0.78 | +0.29 | -0.81 |
| Mon 02/02 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 0.29 | 2.25 | -1.96 | -0.87 |
| Sat 07/02 | NK Istra 1961 | 2.97 | 0.95 | +2.02 | -0.73 |
| Sun 15/02 | HNK Gorica | 0.65 | 0.72 | -0.07 | -0.70 |
| Fri 20/02 | NK Slaven Belupo | 1.89 | 0.46 | +1.43 | -0.61 |
| Sat 28/02 | NK Osijek | 0.30 | 1.57 | -1.27 | -0.64 |
| Sun 08/03 | HNK Rijeka | 0.62 | 0.94 | -0.32 | -0.62 |
| Fri 13/03 | NK Varaždin | 0.50 | 1.91 | -1.41 | -0.65 |
| Sat 21/03 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0.65 | 4.12 | -3.47 | -0.76 |
| Tue 07/04 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 0.51 | 0.25 | +0.26 | -0.72 |
| Mon 13/04 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 1.82 | 1.22 | +0.60 | -0.68 |
| Sat 18/04 | NK Istra 1961 | 1.23 | 1.26 | -0.03 | -0.65 |
| Wed 22/04 | HNK Gorica | 0.60 | 1.11 | -0.51 | -0.65 |
| Sat 25/04 | NK Slaven Belupo | 1.54 | 1.42 | +0.12 | -0.62 |
| Sat 02/05 | NK Osijek | 0.48 | 1.20 | -0.72 | -0.63 |
| Fri 08/05 | HNK Rijeka | 0.26 | 2.01 | -1.75 | -0.66 |
| Fri 15/05 | NK Varaždin | 0.70 | 1.74 | -1.04 | -0.67 |
Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.92 npxG and 1.59 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.
Strength of schedule
- Season so far
- number 2 hardest of 10 in HNL
- +0.03 xG vs league average
- Over 35 league matches
- Last 5
- tied number 5 hardest of 10 in HNL
- −0.02 xG vs league average
- Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures
Season so far
+0.03 xG vs league average · over 35 matches · number 2 hardest of 10
- NK Varaždin Home −0.15
- HNK Rijeka Away +0.37
- NK Osijek Home −0.01
- NK Slaven Belupo Away −0.09
- HNK Gorica Home −0.20
- NK Istra 1961 Away −0.45
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb Home +0.75
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Home −0.22
- HNK Hajduk Split Home +0.39
- NK Varaždin Away −0.15
- HNK Rijeka Home +0.37
- NK Osijek Away −0.01
- NK Slaven Belupo Home −0.09
- HNK Gorica Away −0.20
- NK Istra 1961 Home −0.45
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb Away +0.75
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Away −0.22
- HNK Hajduk Split Away +0.39
- NK Varaždin Home −0.15
- HNK Rijeka Away +0.37
- NK Osijek Home −0.01
- NK Slaven Belupo Away −0.09
- HNK Gorica Away −0.20
- NK Istra 1961 Away −0.45
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb Home +0.75
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Home −0.22
- HNK Hajduk Split Home +0.39
- NK Varaždin Away −0.15
- HNK Rijeka Home +0.37
- NK Osijek Away −0.01
- NK Slaven Belupo Home −0.09
- HNK Gorica Home −0.20
- NK Istra 1961 Home −0.45
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb Away +0.75
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Away −0.22
Last 5
−0.02 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 5 hardest of 10
- NK Varaždin Home −0.15
- HNK Rijeka Away +0.37
- NK Osijek Home −0.01
- NK Slaven Belupo Away −0.09
- HNK Gorica Home −0.20
HNK Vukovar 1991 shots and chance quality
Low volume, average quality. HNK Vukovar 1991 take 9.7 shots a match (league 12.3) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #10 in HNL for volume and #7 for quality. 58% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%).
Attack
Shot volume
Shots per match
Every attempt, penalties included, ÷ matches with shot counts and xG.
9.7
shots per match
#10/10
of 10
| Rank | Club | shots per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 16.6 |
| #2 | HNK Rijeka | 14.5 |
| #3 | HNK Hajduk Split | 14.5 |
| #4 | NK Slaven Belupo | 12.3 |
| #5 | NK Osijek | 12.1 |
| #6 | NK Varaždin | 11.5 |
| #7 | HNK Gorica | 10.8 |
| #8 | NK Istra 1961 | 10.3 |
| #9 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 10.2 |
| #10 | HNK Vukovar 1991 | 9.7 |
- League avg
- 12.3
- Total
- 341 shots from 35 matches
Chance quality
Non-penalty xG per shot
Non-penalty xG ÷ shots, over the same matches. Penalty attempts included in the shot count.
0.09
npxG per shot
#7/10
of 10
| Rank | Club | npxG per shot |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0.12 |
| #2 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 0.11 |
| #3 | HNK Gorica | 0.11 |
| #4 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 0.10 |
| #5 | HNK Rijeka | 0.10 |
| #6 | NK Istra 1961 | 0.10 |
| #7 | HNK Vukovar 1991 | 0.09 |
| #8 | NK Varaždin | 0.09 |
| #9 | NK Slaven Belupo | 0.09 |
| #10 | NK Osijek | 0.08 |
- League avg
- 0.10
- Total
- 32.25 npxG from 341 shots
Defence
Shots allowed
Shots allowed per match
Every opponent attempt, penalties included, ÷ matches with shot counts and xG. Ranked lowest first, and drawn with better to the right.
15.0
shots per match
#9/10
of 10
| Rank | Club | shots per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 7.5 |
| #2 | HNK Rijeka | 9.9 |
| #3 | HNK Hajduk Split | 10.0 |
| #4 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 11.4 |
| #5 | NK Slaven Belupo | 12.3 |
| #6 | NK Osijek | 13.0 |
| #7 | HNK Gorica | 13.2 |
| #8 | NK Varaždin | 13.9 |
| #9 | HNK Vukovar 1991 | 15.0 |
| #10 | NK Istra 1961 | 16.4 |
- League avg
- 12.3
- Total
- 526 shots allowed from 35 matches
Chance quality allowed
Non-penalty xGA per shot
Opponents' non-penalty xG ÷ their shots, over the same matches. Penalty attempts included in the shot count. Ranked lowest first.
0.11
npxGA per shot
#8/10
of 10
| Rank | Club | npxGA per shot |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | NK Osijek | 0.08 |
| #2 | HNK Rijeka | 0.09 |
| #3 | NK Varaždin | 0.09 |
| #4 | HNK Gorica | 0.10 |
| #5 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 0.10 |
| #6 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0.10 |
| #7 | NK Istra 1961 | 0.10 |
| #8 | HNK Vukovar 1991 | 0.11 |
| #9 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 0.11 |
| #10 | NK Slaven Belupo | 0.12 |
- League avg
- 0.10
- Total
- 55.76 npxGA from 526 shots
Shot profile
Shot location
58% inside the box
League avg 64%
From 199 of 341 shots over 35 matches
Shots allowed, location
67% allowed inside the box
League avg 64%
From 355 of 526 shots allowed over 35 matches
HNK Vukovar 1991 home and away xG
| Measure | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 18 | 17 |
| xG / match | 1.29 | 0.78 |
| xGA / match | 1.76 | 1.84 |
| xGD / match | -0.47 | -1.05 |
| xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → | 1.14 | 0.70 |
Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.
Every HNK Vukovar 1991 match by xG
Away this season
- Matches
- 17
- xG / match
- 0.78
- xGA / match
- 1.84
- xGD / match
- -1.05
- Points
- 7 of 51
- Fri 08/05 HNK Rijeka A xG 0.27 xGA 2.01 xGD -1.74 xPts 0.20
- Sat 25/04 NK Slaven Belupo A xG 1.51 xGA 1.42 xGD +0.09 xPts 1.42
- Sat 18/04 NK Istra 1961 A Best underlying xG 1.97 P xGA 1.26 xGD +0.71 xPts 1.90
- Fri 13/03 NK Varaždin A xG 0.50 xGA 1.91 xGD -1.41 xPts 0.37
- Sat 28/02 NK Osijek A xG 0.27 xGA 2.36 P xGD -2.09 xPts 0.14
- Sun 15/02 HNK Gorica A xG 0.65 xGA 0.71 xGD -0.06 xPts 1.23
- Mon 02/02 GNK Dinamo Zagreb A xG 0.30 xGA 2.20 xGD -1.90 xPts 0.18
- Sat 24/01 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb A xG 1.85 P xGA 1.57 P xGD +0.28 xPts 1.58
- Sun 21/12 HNK Hajduk Split A xG 0.18 xGA 2.61 xGD -2.43 xPts 0.09
- Sat 06/12 HNK Rijeka A xG 0.36 xGA 2.01 P xGD -1.65 xPts 0.24
- Fri 21/11 NK Slaven Belupo A xG 1.44 P xGA 2.25 xGD -0.81 xPts 0.83
- Fri 07/11 HNK Gorica A xG 1.07 xGA 1.46 xGD -0.39 xPts 1.02
- Sat 01/11 NK Istra 1961 A xG 0.66 xGA 1.43 xGD -0.77 xPts 0.68
- Fri 26/09 NK Varaždin A xG 0.65 xGA 2.11 P xGD -1.46 xPts 0.37
- Sun 14/09 NK Osijek A xG 0.99 xGA 1.46 xGD -0.47 xPts 0.95
- Fri 08/08 GNK Dinamo Zagreb A Weakest underlying xG 0.28 xGA 3.38 xGD -3.10 xPts 0.05
- Fri 01/08 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb A xG 0.38 xGA 1.08 xGD -0.70 xPts 0.63
Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.38. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.
HNK Vukovar 1991 in HNL
Attack
- xG / match #8 of 10
- Shots / match #10 of 10
- Chance quality #7 of 10
- Home xG =7 of 10
- Away xG #10 of 10
Defence
- xGA / match #9 of 10
- Shots allowed #9 of 10
- Chance quality allowed #8 of 10
About the data
- xG data
- Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
- Derived metrics
- xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
- Model metrics
- xPts is produced by our probability model.