Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 13:30
Full timeKAA Gent 2:1 Club Brugge KV
Club Brugge KV were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. KAA Gent won 2–1. The biggest difference was Club Brugge KV's attack: 0.65 xG against 1.80 projected (−1.15).
Goals
- 38' Josué Vergara KAA Gent · 0.26 xG chance 1–0
- 40' Hans Vanaken Club Brugge KV · 0.15 xG chance 1–1
- 85' Ibrahima Cisse KAA Gent · 0.38 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- KAA Gent
- 27% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- Club Brugge KV
- 46%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Club Brugge KV produced 1.15 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 8
- On target
- 8
- 3
- Inside the box
- 9
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 1.16
- 0.41
- Set-piece xG
- 0.26
- 0.23
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.40 for KAA Gent and 0.65 for Club Brugge KV.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
21 shots · 2.06 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- KAA Gent
- Club Brugge KV
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.54 xG created 1.36 xGA
- D 1.55 created, 2.09 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
- D 1.46 created, 1.17 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- L 1.42 created, 2.91 conceded against Club Brugge KV
- D 2.48 created, 1.09 conceded against KRC Genk
- W 1.16 created, 0.34 conceded against KV Mechelen
- W 1.18 created, 0.54 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
2.59 xG created 1.01 xGA
- W 2.31 created, 1.47 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- D 1.69 created, 0.83 conceded against KV Mechelen
- W 2.91 created, 1.42 conceded against KAA Gent
- W 3.85 created, 0.86 conceded against KV Kortrijk
- W 2.92 created, 0.72 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- W 1.83 created, 0.76 conceded against Cercle Brugge
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| KAA Gent to win | 4.75 | +9.6% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +6.7% | Won |
| Draw | 3.90 | +2.0% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +0.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAA Gent | 26.7% | 19.3% | +7.5 pp | 3.74 |
| Draw | 26.8% | 23.5% | +3.4 pp | 3.73 |
| Club Brugge KV | 46.4% | 57.2% | −10.8 pp | 2.15 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 67.9% | 57.7% | +10.2 pp | 1.47 |
| Both teams not to score | 32.1% | 42.3% | −10.2 pp | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.3% | 78.3% | +8.0 pp | 1.16 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.7% | 21.7% | −8.0 pp | 7.29 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.6% | 57.1% | +6.4 pp | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.4% | 42.9% | −6.4 pp | 2.74 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KAA Gent sample
- 20 matches
- Club Brugge KV sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.