Lommel SK 0:1 Club Brugge KV: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Friday, 04/09/2026 at 20:45

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Match report · Jupiler Pro League

Lommel SK Home 0.65 xG · 7 shots

Club Brugge KV Away 0.80 xG · 14 shots

01 The chances were evenly matched

Club Brugge KV were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Club Brugge KV's attack: 0.80 xG against 1.96 projected (−1.16). Lommel SK produced 0.65 xG against 1.26 projected (−0.61).

Goals

45' Timothy Eyoma (o.g.) Club Brugge KV · 0.32 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Lommel SK: 22%
Draw: 25%
Club Brugge KV: 53% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Lommel SK 1.26 0.65 -0.61

Club Brugge KV 1.96 0.80 -1.16

Club Brugge KV produced 1.16 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Lommel SK Club Brugge KV

Shots: 7; 14
On target: 2; 4
Inside the box: 5; 10
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.59; 0.91
Set-piece xG: 0.05; 0.21
Penalties: —; —

Lommel SK's shots add up to 0.64 xG and Club Brugge KV's to 1.12; the published figures are 0.65 and 0.80.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 1.76 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Lommel SK
Club Brugge KV
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Lommel SK

1.20 xG created 1.29 xGA

D 1.49 created, 1.98 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
L 0.34 created, 1.25 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
W 1.34 created, 0.66 conceded against KVC Westerlo
W 1.63 created, 1.25 conceded against Cercle Brugge

Club Brugge KV

2.31 xG created 1.00 xGA

D 1.69 created, 0.83 conceded against KV Mechelen
W 2.91 created, 1.42 conceded against KAA Gent
W 3.85 created, 0.86 conceded against KV Kortrijk
W 2.92 created, 0.72 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
W 1.83 created, 0.76 conceded against Cercle Brugge
L 0.65 created, 1.38 conceded against KAA Gent

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged3 won6 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Lommel SK against Club Brugge KV before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Lommel SK to win	8.50	+83.3%	Lost
Club Brugge KV at most 1 goal	4.00	+57.9%	Won
Club Brugge KV not to score	13.00	+55.1%	Lost
Draw	5.25	+33.7%	Lost
Lommel SK 2+ goals	3.50	+27.9%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.50	+24.2%	Won
Lommel SK to score	1.50	+11.8%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	8.00	+5.8%	Won
Both teams to score	1.57	+5.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lommel SK	21.6%	10.8%	+10.7 pp	4.64
Draw	25.5%	17.5%	+7.9 pp	3.93
Club Brugge KV	53.0%	71.6%	−18.7 pp	1.89

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lommel SK to score	74.5%	62.5%	+12.0 pp	1.34
Lommel SK not to score	25.5%	37.5%	−12.0 pp	3.93
Club Brugge KV to score	88.1%	92.6%	−4.5 pp	1.14
Club Brugge KV not to score	11.9%	7.4%	+4.5 pp	8.38
Both teams to score	67.0%	58.9%	+8.1 pp	1.49
Both teams not to score	33.0%	41.1%	−8.1 pp	3.03
Lommel SK 2+ goals	36.5%	26.9%	+9.7 pp	2.74
Lommel SK at most 1 goal	63.5%	73.1%	−9.7 pp	1.58
Club Brugge KV 2+ goals	60.5%	76.6%	−16.1 pp	1.65
Club Brugge KV at most 1 goal	39.5%	23.4%	+16.1 pp	2.53
Over 1.5 goals	86.8%	88.1%	−1.3 pp	1.15
Under 1.5 goals	13.2%	11.9%	+1.3 pp	7.56
Over 2.5 goals	64.5%	72.9%	−8.4 pp	1.55
Under 2.5 goals	35.5%	27.1%	+8.4 pp	2.82

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Lommel SK sample: 4 matches
Club Brugge KV sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Lommel SK has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.