Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 5:0 Lommel SK: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Jupiler Pro League

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise Home 3.27 xG · 28 shots

Lommel SK Away 0.65 xG · 11 shots

50 The scoreline reflected the chances

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 59%. They won 5–0. The biggest difference was Royale Union Saint-Gilloise's attack: 3.27 xG against 1.71 projected (+1.56).

Goals

4' Besfort Zeneli Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.07 xG chance 1–0
7' Relebohile Mofokeng Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.34 xG chance 2–0
65' Ilan Hurtevent Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.18 xG chance 3–0
88' Raul Florucz Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.55 xG chance 4–0
90' Raul Florucz Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.07 xG chance 5–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise: 59% What happened
Draw: 27%
Lommel SK: 14%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 1.71 3.27 +1.56

Lommel SK 0.79 0.65 -0.14

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise produced 1.56 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise Lommel SK

Shots: 28; 11
On target: 11; 4
Inside the box: 25; 5
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.06
Open play xG: 2.94; 0.26
Set-piece xG: 0.42; 0.40
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.28 for Royale Union Saint-Gilloise and 0.66 for Lommel SK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

39 shots · 4.02 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Lommel SK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise

1.74 xG created 1.16 xGA

W 2.40 created, 0.87 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
W 1.79 created, 0.76 conceded against KVC Westerlo
D 0.89 created, 0.98 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
W 1.60 created, 1.34 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
W 2.49 created, 0.85 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
W 1.24 created, 2.18 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi

Lommel SK

1.09 xG created 1.19 xGA

D 1.49 created, 1.98 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
L 0.34 created, 1.25 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
W 1.34 created, 0.66 conceded against KVC Westerlo
W 1.63 created, 1.25 conceded against Cercle Brugge
L 0.65 created, 0.80 conceded against Club Brugge KV

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged0 won9 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Royale Union Saint-Gilloise against Lommel SK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise not to score	13.00	+102.4%	Lost
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise at most 1 goal	3.75	+76.7%	Lost
Lommel SK to win	12.00	+68.1%	Lost
Draw	6.00	+63.1%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.00	+46.6%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.70	+43.6%	Lost
Lommel SK to score	1.91	+10.3%	Lost
Lommel SK 2+ goals	6.00	+8.4%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.00	+0.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	58.8%	77.2%	−18.4 pp	1.70
Draw	27.2%	15.2%	+12.0 pp	3.68
Lommel SK	14.0%	7.6%	+6.4 pp	7.14

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise to score	84.4%	92.6%	−8.2 pp	1.18
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise not to score	15.6%	7.4%	+8.2 pp	6.42
Lommel SK to score	57.8%	48.5%	+9.3 pp	1.73
Lommel SK not to score	42.2%	51.5%	−9.3 pp	2.37
Both teams to score	50.4%	46.7%	+3.8 pp	1.98
Both teams not to score	49.6%	53.3%	−3.8 pp	2.02
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2+ goals	52.9%	75.0%	−22.1 pp	1.89
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise at most 1 goal	47.1%	25.0%	+22.1 pp	2.12
Lommel SK 2+ goals	18.1%	15.8%	+2.3 pp	5.54
Lommel SK at most 1 goal	81.9%	84.2%	−2.3 pp	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	75.6%	84.2%	−8.6 pp	1.32
Under 1.5 goals	24.4%	15.8%	+8.6 pp	4.09
Over 2.5 goals	46.8%	65.2%	−18.3 pp	2.14
Under 2.5 goals	53.2%	34.8%	+18.3 pp	1.88

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise sample: 20 matches
Lommel SK sample: 5 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Lommel SK has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.