Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Athletic Club – Levante UD
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Athletic Club
- 55%
- Draw
- 27%
- Levante UD
- 17%
| Athletic Club | Draw | Levante UD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.81 | 3.64 | 5.83 |
- Total goals
- 2.66
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Athletic Club
55% Athletic Club to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 18th
- Athletic Club attack v Levante UD defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 6th
- Athletic Club defence v Levante UD attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.28 vs -0.75
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.73 – 0.93
- Athletic Club v Levante UD
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Athletic Club | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.64 · 5th | 1.33 · 8th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.36 · 10th | 2.08 · 19th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.28 · 5th | -0.75 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.82 · 5th | 1.04 · 17th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.28 | -0.75 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Athletic Club clean sheet
- 36%
- Athletic Club 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.1%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 10.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Athletic Club sample
- 20 matches
- Levante UD sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Athletic Club
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Levante UD
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.