Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 20:00
28d 19h to kick-offAthletic Club – Real Sociedad
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Athletic Club
- 62%
- Draw
- 25%
- Real Sociedad
- 13%
| Athletic Club | Draw | Real Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.61 | 3.93 | 7.98 |
- Total goals
- 2.62
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 51%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Athletic Club
62% Athletic Club to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 19th
- Athletic Club attack v Real Sociedad defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 11th
- Athletic Club defence v Real Sociedad attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.28 vs -0.60
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.83 – 0.78
- Athletic Club v Real Sociedad
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Athletic Club | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.64 · 5th | 1.19 · 14th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.36 · 10th | 1.68 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.28 · 5th | -0.50 · 14th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.82 · 5th | 1.17 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.28 | -0.60 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Athletic Club clean sheet
- 43%
- Athletic Club 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 49%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.3%
- 2:0
- 12.5%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Athletic Club sample
- 20 matches
- Real Sociedad sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Athletic Club
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Real Sociedad
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.