Valencia 2:3 Real Sociedad: xG & match report · La Liga

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · La Liga

Valencia Home 1.55 xG · 22 shots

Real Sociedad Away 2.65 xG · 21 shots

23 The scoreline reflected the chances

Valencia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. Real Sociedad won 3–2. The biggest difference was Real Sociedad's attack: 2.65 xG against 1.01 projected (+1.64).

Goals

26' Luka Sučić Real Sociedad · 0.10 xG chance 0–1
57' Aaron Mayol Valencia · 0.05 xG chance 1–1
75' Carlos Soler (pen.) Real Sociedad · 0.82 xG chance 1–2
84' Luken Beitia (o.g.) Valencia · 0.10 xG chance 2–2
90' Ander Barrenetxea Real Sociedad · 0.03 xG chance 2–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Valencia: 46%
Draw: 31%
Real Sociedad: 23% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Valencia 1.44 1.55 +0.11

Real Sociedad 1.01 2.65 +1.64

Real Sociedad produced 1.64 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Valencia Real Sociedad

Shots: 22; 21
On target: 6; 6
Inside the box: 13; 15
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.13
Open play xG: 1.28; 1.45
Set-piece xG: 0.41; 0.45
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.65 for Valencia and 1.92 for Real Sociedad.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

43 shots · 4.41 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Valencia
Real Sociedad
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Valencia

0.75 xG created 1.47 xGA

D 0.58 created, 0.66 conceded against Celta Vigo
L 1.12 created, 0.71 conceded against Real Betis
L 1.40 created, 1.42 conceded against Deportivo La Coruña
L 0.66 created, 4.08 conceded against Barcelona
L 0.10 created, 0.93 conceded against Sevilla
W 0.65 created, 1.05 conceded against Deportivo Alavés

Real Sociedad

0.94 xG created 1.71 xGA

L 1.36 created, 1.24 conceded against Real Betis
L 0.57 created, 3.14 conceded against Real Madrid
W 1.82 created, 0.91 conceded against Espanyol
D 1.05 created, 0.43 conceded against Celta Vigo
W 0.58 created, 2.47 conceded against Elche
L 0.27 created, 2.05 conceded against Atlético Madrid

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Valencia: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged2 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Valencia against Real Sociedad before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Valencia to win	2.70	+23.1%	Lost
Real Sociedad not to score	3.50	+18.0%	Lost
Real Sociedad at most 1 goal	1.53	+12.5%	Lost
Valencia 2+ goals	2.50	+8.7%	Won
Draw	3.40	+5.1%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.91	+4.5%	Lost
Valencia to score	1.30	+2.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Valencia	45.6%	35.3%	+10.3 pp	2.19
Draw	30.9%	28.0%	+2.9 pp	3.23
Real Sociedad	23.5%	36.7%	−13.2 pp	4.26

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Valencia to score	79.0%	72.3%	+6.6 pp	1.27
Valencia not to score	21.0%	27.7%	−6.6 pp	4.75
Real Sociedad to score	66.3%	73.1%	−6.8 pp	1.51
Real Sociedad not to score	33.7%	26.9%	+6.8 pp	2.97
Both teams to score	54.2%	54.7%	−0.5 pp	1.85
Both teams not to score	45.8%	45.3%	+0.5 pp	2.18
Valencia 2+ goals	43.5%	37.5%	+6.0 pp	2.30
Valencia at most 1 goal	56.5%	62.5%	−6.0 pp	1.77
Real Sociedad 2+ goals	26.6%	39.2%	−12.6 pp	3.75
Real Sociedad at most 1 goal	73.4%	60.8%	+12.6 pp	1.36
Over 1.5 goals	74.4%	74.5%	−0.0 pp	1.34
Under 1.5 goals	25.6%	25.5%	+0.0 pp	3.91
Over 2.5 goals	45.2%	50.0%	−4.8 pp	2.21
Under 2.5 goals	54.8%	50.0%	+4.8 pp	1.83

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Valencia sample: 20 matches
Real Sociedad sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.