Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 14:00
21d 13h to kick-offAthletic Club – Getafe
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Athletic Club
- 58%
- Draw
- 30%
- Getafe
- 12%
| Athletic Club | Draw | Getafe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.73 | 3.38 | 8.01 |
- Total goals
- 2.11
- Over 2.5 goals
- 35%
- Both teams to score
- 41%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Athletic Club
58% Athletic Club to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 7th
- Athletic Club attack v Getafe defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 20th
- Athletic Club defence v Getafe attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.28 vs -0.39
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.49 – 0.62
- Athletic Club v Getafe
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Athletic Club | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.64 · 5th | 0.69 · 20th |
| xGA / match | 1.36 · 10th | (better) 1.27 · 8th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.28 · 5th | -0.57 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.82 · 5th | 0.92 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.28 | -0.39 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 45% of the model's distribution.
- Athletic Club clean sheet
- 51%
- Athletic Club 2+ goals
- 45%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 65%
- Both teams to score: no
- 59%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:0
- 16.1%
- 1:1
- 14.7%
- 2:0
- 14.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Athletic Club sample
- 20 matches
- Getafe sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Athletic Club
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Getafe
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.