Monday, 19/10/2026 at 21:00
15d 17h to kick-offGetafe – Rayo Vallecano
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Getafe
- 32%
- Draw
- 34%
- Rayo Vallecano
- 34%
| Getafe | Draw | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.14 | 2.93 | 2.94 |
- Total goals
- 2.19
- Over 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score
- 50%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
34% Rayo Vallecano to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 7th
- Rayo Vallecano attack v Getafe defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 20th
- Rayo Vallecano defence v Getafe attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.53 vs -0.39
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.07 – 1.11
- Getafe v Rayo Vallecano
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Getafe | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.69 · 20th | (better) 1.27 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.27 · 8th | 1.76 · 16th |
| xGD / match | -0.57 · 15th | (better) -0.50 · 13th |
| xPts / match | 0.92 · 18th | (better) 1.12 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.39 | -0.53 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- Getafe clean sheet
- 30%
- Getafe 2+ goals
- 29%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score: no
- 50%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.6%
- 0:0
- 11.3%
- 0:1
- 10.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Getafe sample
- 20 matches
- Rayo Vallecano sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Getafe
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Rayo Vallecano
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.