Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Deportivo Alavés: xG & match report · La Liga

Thursday, 20/08/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · La Liga

Rayo Vallecano Home 0.42 xG · 8 shots

Deportivo Alavés Away 2.00 xG · 15 shots

11 Deportivo Alavés had the better chances, but it finished level

Rayo Vallecano were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Rayo Vallecano's attack: 0.42 xG against 1.47 projected (−1.05). Deportivo Alavés produced 2.00 xG against 1.06 projected (+0.94).

Goals

48' Sergio Camello Rayo Vallecano · 0.11 xG chance 1–0
84' Mariano Díaz Deportivo Alavés · 0.30 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Rayo Vallecano: 45%
Draw: 31% What happened
Deportivo Alavés: 24%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Rayo Vallecano 1.47 0.42 -1.05

Deportivo Alavés 1.06 2.00 +0.94

Rayo Vallecano produced 1.05 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Rayo Vallecano Deportivo Alavés

Shots: 8; 15
On target: 3; 3
Inside the box: 5; 9
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.13
Open play xG: 0.18; 1.74
Set-piece xG: 0.24; 0.21
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.92 for Deportivo Alavés.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 2.37 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Rayo Vallecano
Deportivo Alavés
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Rayo Vallecano

1.32 xG created 1.32 xGA

W 0.83 created, 1.38 conceded against Getafe
D 1.20 created, 0.98 conceded against Girona FC
D 1.16 created, 0.76 conceded against Valencia
W 1.49 created, 0.97 conceded against Villarreal
W 1.34 created, 1.63 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
L 1.89 created, 2.19 conceded against Sevilla

Deportivo Alavés

1.38 xG created 0.83 xGA

L 0.49 created, 0.97 conceded against Athletic Club
D 2.05 created, 1.39 conceded against Elche
W 0.72 created, 0.60 conceded against Barcelona
W 1.46 created, 0.45 conceded against Real Oviedo
L 1.63 created, 1.34 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
W 1.93 created, 0.24 conceded against Getafe

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Rayo Vallecano: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged4 won4 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Rayo Vallecano against Deportivo Alavés before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	2.75	+31.0%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.25	+26.7%	Won
Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals	2.75	+22.6%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.57	+19.8%	Won
Deportivo Alavés 2+ goals	4.00	+15.3%	Lost
Rayo Vallecano to score	1.36	+8.7%	Won
Deportivo Alavés to score	1.57	+7.4%	Won
Rayo Vallecano to win	2.25	+1.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano	45.0%	42.1%	+2.9 pp	2.22
Draw	30.6%	31.6%	−1.0 pp	3.27
Deportivo Alavés	24.4%	26.3%	−1.9 pp	4.09

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to score	79.7%	68.7%	+10.9 pp	1.25
Rayo Vallecano not to score	20.3%	31.3%	−10.9 pp	4.92
Deportivo Alavés to score	68.4%	58.9%	+9.5 pp	1.46
Deportivo Alavés not to score	31.6%	41.1%	−9.5 pp	3.16
Both teams to score	56.3%	41.1%	+15.2 pp	1.78
Both teams not to score	43.7%	58.9%	−15.2 pp	2.29
Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals	44.6%	33.7%	+10.9 pp	2.24
Rayo Vallecano at most 1 goal	55.4%	66.3%	−10.9 pp	1.80
Deportivo Alavés 2+ goals	28.8%	23.4%	+5.4 pp	3.47
Deportivo Alavés at most 1 goal	71.2%	76.6%	−5.4 pp	1.40
Over 1.5 goals	76.3%	60.2%	+16.1 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.7%	39.8%	−16.1 pp	4.21
Over 2.5 goals	47.6%	34.4%	+13.2 pp	2.10
Under 2.5 goals	52.4%	65.6%	−13.2 pp	1.91

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Rayo Vallecano sample: 20 matches
Deportivo Alavés sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.