xgEdge

Expected goals

Rayo Vallecano expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

La Liga · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

Rayo Vallecano's attacking and defensive expected goals in La Liga 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Rayo Vallecano xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.27 xG per match
#10/20
Attack (xG per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Barcelona 4.07
#2 Real Madrid 2.64
#3 Villarreal 2.38
#4 Atlético Madrid 1.72
#5 Athletic Club 1.64
#6 Real Betis 1.52
#7 Racing de Santander 1.45
#8 Levante UD 1.33
#9 Deportivo Alavés 1.28
#10 Rayo Vallecano 1.27
#11 Espanyol 1.24
#12 Osasuna 1.24
#13 Elche 1.24
#14 Real Sociedad 1.19
#15 Celta Vigo 1.01
#16 Sevilla 0.99
#17 Deportivo La Coruña 0.97
#18 Valencia 0.87
#19 Málaga 0.84
#20 Getafe 0.69
League avg
1.48
Total
8.87 7 matches
Defence
1.76 xGA per match
#16/20
Defence (xGA per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Atlético Madrid 1.02
#2 Real Madrid 1.09
#3 Barcelona 1.09
#4 Deportivo La Coruña 1.15
#5 Deportivo Alavés 1.19
#6 Villarreal 1.25
#7 Celta Vigo 1.26
#8 Getafe 1.27
#9 Sevilla 1.30
#10 Athletic Club 1.36
#11 Espanyol 1.36
#12 Osasuna 1.39
#13 Valencia 1.64
#14 Málaga 1.66
#15 Real Sociedad 1.68
#16 Rayo Vallecano 1.76
#17 Real Betis 1.86
#18 Elche 2.01
#19 Levante UD 2.08
#20 Racing de Santander 2.20
League avg
1.48
Total
12.35 7 matches
xG difference
-0.50 xGD per match
#13/20
xG difference (xGD per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Barcelona +2.99
#2 Real Madrid +1.55
#3 Villarreal +1.12
#4 Atlético Madrid +0.70
#5 Athletic Club +0.28
#6 Deportivo Alavés +0.09
#7 Espanyol -0.12
#8 Osasuna -0.15
#9 Deportivo La Coruña -0.18
#10 Celta Vigo -0.26
#11 Sevilla -0.31
#12 Real Betis -0.34
#13 Rayo Vallecano -0.50
#14 Real Sociedad -0.50
#15 Getafe -0.57
#16 Levante UD -0.75
#17 Racing de Santander -0.76
#18 Elche -0.77
#19 Valencia -0.78
#20 Málaga -0.83
League avg
0.00
Total
-3.48 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.12 xPts per match
#16/20
Expected points (xPts per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Barcelona 2.66
#2 Real Madrid 2.27
#3 Villarreal 1.92
#4 Atlético Madrid 1.86
#5 Athletic Club 1.82
#6 Deportivo Alavés 1.44
#7 Osasuna 1.36
#8 Espanyol 1.35
#9 Sevilla 1.30
#10 Celta Vigo 1.28
#11 Real Betis 1.20
#12 Real Sociedad 1.17
#13 Elche 1.14
#14 Racing de Santander 1.14
#15 Deportivo La Coruña 1.14
#16 Rayo Vallecano 1.12
#17 Levante UD 1.04
#18 Getafe 0.92
#19 Valencia 0.91
#20 Málaga 0.86
League avg
1.39
Total
7.87 vs 8 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Rayo Vallecano's underlying numbers sit close to the La Liga average. They rank #13 for xG difference at -0.50 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 11 goals are 2.13 above 8.87 xG, while 8 points are 0.13 above 7.87 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
11 8.87 +2.13 scored 2.13 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
16 12.35 +3.65 conceded 3.65 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
8 7.87 +0.13 0.13 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Rayo Vallecano are 2.13 goals above their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at +2.14, against Espanyol on Tue 15/09.

Goals
11
xG
8.87
Gap
+2.13
Sat 15/08 Thu 20/08 Mon 31/08 Sat 05/09 Sat 12/09 Tue 15/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 -0.89 -0.31 +0.48 +1.87 +1.66 +2.14 +2.13 -0.89 +0.58 +0.79 +1.39 -0.21 +0.48 -0.01 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Rayo Vallecano: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 15/08 Sevilla 1 1.89 -0.89 -0.89
Thu 20/08 Deportivo Alavés 1 0.42 +0.58 -0.31
Mon 31/08 Barcelona 2 1.21 +0.79 +0.48
Sat 05/09 Racing de Santander 3 1.61 +1.39 +1.87
Sat 12/09 Real Madrid 1 1.21 -0.21 +1.66
Tue 15/09 Espanyol 2 1.52 +0.48 +2.14
Sat 19/09 Osasuna 1 1.01 -0.01 +2.13

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Rayo Vallecano xG trend

Current form -0.42 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 7 matches. The worst was against Barcelona on Mon 31/08 (-1.87).

npxG · last 6
1.14
npxGA · last 6
1.56
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +1.28 Sat 15/08 -1.52 Thu 20/08 -1.87 Mon 31/08 +0.96 Sat 05/09 -0.78 Sat 12/09 +0.03 Tue 15/09 +0.64 Sat 19/09 -0.18 season avg
Rayo Vallecano: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 15/08 Sevilla 2.00 0.72 +1.28 +1.28
Thu 20/08 Deportivo Alavés 0.40 1.92 -1.52 -0.12
Mon 31/08 Barcelona 1.09 2.96 -1.87 -0.70
Sat 05/09 Racing de Santander 1.50 0.54 +0.96 -0.29
Sat 12/09 Real Madrid 1.13 1.91 -0.78 -0.39
Tue 15/09 Espanyol 1.52 1.49 +0.03 -0.32
Sat 19/09 Osasuna 1.19 0.55 +0.64 -0.18

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.26 npxG and 1.44 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 2 hardest of 20 in La Liga
+0.14 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 1 hardest of 20 in La Liga
+0.19 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.14 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · tied number 2 hardest of 20

  1. Osasuna Away −0.19
  2. Espanyol Home −0.11
  3. Real Madrid Away +0.60
  4. Racing de Santander Home −0.33
  5. Barcelona Away +1.00
  6. Deportivo Alavés Home +0.10
  7. Sevilla Away −0.07

Last 5

+0.19 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 1 hardest of 20

  1. Osasuna Away −0.19
  2. Espanyol Home −0.11
  3. Real Madrid Away +0.60
  4. Racing de Santander Home −0.33
  5. Barcelona Away +1.00

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Rayo Vallecano shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. Rayo Vallecano take 13.4 shots a match (league 13.2) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), =8 in La Liga for volume and #10 for quality. 52% of their shots come from inside the box (league 62%), and set pieces produce 26% of their npxG (league 20%).

Attack

Shot volume
13.4 shots per match
=8/20
Shot volume (shots per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Barcelona 21.4
#2 Real Madrid 18.9
#3 Real Betis 17.4
#4 Atlético Madrid 16.9
#5 Villarreal 16.0
#6 Athletic Club 15.7
#7 Espanyol 13.6
=8 Rayo Vallecano 13.4
=8 Real Sociedad 13.4
#10 Deportivo Alavés 12.4
#11 Getafe 11.7
#12 Elche 11.3
#13 Sevilla 11.0
#14 Levante UD 10.7
#15 Valencia 10.6
=16 Celta Vigo 10.3
=16 Racing de Santander 10.3
#18 Deportivo La Coruña 10.1
#19 Málaga 10.0
#20 Osasuna 9.4
League avg
13.2
Total
94 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#10/20
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Barcelona 0.16
#2 Levante UD 0.13
#3 Real Madrid 0.13
#4 Villarreal 0.13
#5 Deportivo Alavés 0.11
#6 Racing de Santander 0.10
#7 Elche 0.10
#8 Deportivo La Coruña 0.10
#9 Osasuna 0.10
#10 Rayo Vallecano 0.09
#11 Athletic Club 0.09
#12 Espanyol 0.09
#13 Real Betis 0.09
#14 Atlético Madrid 0.09
#15 Valencia 0.08
#16 Celta Vigo 0.08
#17 Real Sociedad 0.08
#18 Sevilla 0.07
#19 Málaga 0.06
#20 Getafe 0.06
League avg
0.10
Total
8.83 npxG from 94 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
16.6 shots per match
#19/20
Shots allowed (shots per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Barcelona 7.3
#2 Athletic Club 9.5
#3 Atlético Madrid 9.7
#4 Sevilla 11.3
#5 Espanyol 12.0
#6 Deportivo Alavés 12.1
#7 Celta Vigo 12.4
=8 Osasuna 12.7
=8 Real Madrid 12.7
=10 Deportivo La Coruña 12.9
=10 Villarreal 12.9
#12 Getafe 13.3
#13 Málaga 14.9
#14 Levante UD 15.2
=15 Elche 15.3
=15 Valencia 15.3
#17 Real Betis 15.7
#18 Real Sociedad 15.9
#19 Rayo Vallecano 16.6
#20 Racing de Santander 16.7
League avg
13.2
Total
116 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#5/20
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Deportivo Alavés 0.07
#2 Getafe 0.07
#3 Real Madrid 0.08
#4 Atlético Madrid 0.08
#5 Rayo Vallecano 0.09
#6 Deportivo La Coruña 0.09
#7 Villarreal 0.09
#8 Celta Vigo 0.09
#9 Real Sociedad 0.10
#10 Málaga 0.10
#11 Athletic Club 0.10
#12 Valencia 0.10
#13 Racing de Santander 0.11
#14 Espanyol 0.11
#15 Sevilla 0.11
#16 Osasuna 0.11
#17 Real Betis 0.12
#18 Levante UD 0.12
#19 Elche 0.12
#20 Barcelona 0.15
League avg
0.10
Total
10.09 npxGA from 116 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

52% inside the box

League avg 62%

From 49 of 94 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

66% allowed inside the box

League avg 62%

From 76 of 116 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

74% open play · 26% set pieces

League avg 20% set pieces

From 2.3 of 8.8 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

82% open play · 18% set pieces

League avg 20% set pieces

From 1.8 of 10.0 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Rayo Vallecano home and away xG

Rayo Vallecano per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 4
xG / match 1.18 1.33
xGA / match 1.32 2.10
xGD / match -0.14 -0.77
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.33 0.97

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Rayo Vallecano match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.27
xGA / match
1.76
xGD / match
-0.50
Points
8 of 21
  1. Sat 19/09 Osasuna A xG 1.01 xGA 0.53 xGD +0.48
  2. Tue 15/09 Espanyol H xG 1.52 xGA 1.49 xGD +0.03
  3. Sat 12/09 Real Madrid A xG 1.21 xGA 2.62 P xGD -1.41
  4. Sat 05/09 Racing de Santander H Best underlying xG 1.61 xGA 0.48 xGD +1.13
  5. Mon 31/08 Barcelona A Weakest underlying xG 1.21 xGA 3.04 xGD -1.83
  6. Thu 20/08 Deportivo Alavés H xG 0.42 xGA 2.00 xGD -1.58
  7. Sat 15/08 Sevilla A xG 1.89 xGA 2.19 P xGD -0.30

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.04. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Rayo Vallecano in La Liga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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