Rayo Vallecano 2:1 Espanyol: xG & match report · La Liga

Tuesday, 15/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · La Liga

Rayo Vallecano Home 1.52 xG · 16 shots

Espanyol Away 1.49 xG · 19 shots

21 The chances were evenly matched

Rayo Vallecano were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Espanyol's attack: 1.49 xG against 1.07 projected (+0.42).

Goals

3' Álvaro García Rayo Vallecano · 0.44 xG chance 1–0
26' Adrià Pedrosa Rayo Vallecano · 0.06 xG chance 2–0
54' Roberto Fernández Espanyol · 0.20 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Rayo Vallecano: 50% What happened
Draw: 28%
Espanyol: 21%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Rayo Vallecano 1.67 1.52 -0.15

Espanyol 1.07 1.49 +0.42

Espanyol produced 0.42 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Rayo Vallecano Espanyol

Shots: 16; 19
On target: 2; 4
Inside the box: 9; 12
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.08
Open play xG: 1.28; 1.33
Set-piece xG: 0.22; 0.17
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.52 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.49 for Espanyol.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

35 shots · 3.00 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Rayo Vallecano
Espanyol
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Rayo Vallecano

1.28 xG created 1.99 xGA

W 1.34 created, 1.63 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
L 1.89 created, 2.19 conceded against Sevilla
D 0.42 created, 2.00 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
L 1.21 created, 3.04 conceded against Barcelona
W 1.61 created, 0.48 conceded against Racing de Santander
L 1.21 created, 2.62 conceded against Real Madrid

Espanyol

1.43 xG created 1.30 xGA

D 2.41 created, 1.40 conceded against Real Sociedad
W 1.55 created, 0.28 conceded against Levante UD
L 1.05 created, 2.71 conceded against Real Madrid
L 0.91 created, 1.82 conceded against Real Sociedad
D 1.23 created, 0.53 conceded against Sevilla
W 1.43 created, 1.05 conceded against Osasuna

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Rayo Vallecano: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged7 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Rayo Vallecano against Espanyol before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Rayo Vallecano to win	2.30	+15.4%	Won
Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals	2.10	+7.8%	Won
Both teams to score	1.75	+3.2%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.29	+2.7%	Won
Espanyol at most 1 goal	1.44	+2.5%	Won
Rayo Vallecano to score	1.22	+2.1%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.91	+1.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano	50.2%	41.3%	+8.8 pp	1.99
Draw	28.4%	28.0%	+0.5 pp	3.52
Espanyol	21.4%	30.7%	−9.3 pp	4.68

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to score	83.6%	76.6%	+7.0 pp	1.20
Rayo Vallecano not to score	16.4%	23.4%	−7.0 pp	6.09
Espanyol to score	68.6%	68.7%	−0.2 pp	1.46
Espanyol not to score	31.4%	31.3%	+0.2 pp	3.18
Both teams to score	59.0%	53.3%	+5.6 pp	1.70
Both teams not to score	41.0%	46.7%	−5.6 pp	2.44
Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals	51.3%	44.3%	+7.1 pp	1.95
Rayo Vallecano at most 1 goal	48.7%	55.7%	−7.1 pp	2.05
Espanyol 2+ goals	29.0%	35.5%	−6.5 pp	3.45
Espanyol at most 1 goal	71.0%	64.5%	+6.5 pp	1.41
Over 1.5 goals	79.9%	74.5%	+5.4 pp	1.25
Under 1.5 goals	20.1%	25.5%	−5.4 pp	4.96
Over 2.5 goals	52.9%	50.0%	+2.9 pp	1.89
Under 2.5 goals	47.1%	50.0%	−2.9 pp	2.12

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Rayo Vallecano sample: 20 matches
Espanyol sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.