Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 21:00
Full timeReal Madrid 4:1 Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was Real Madrid's attack: 2.62 xG against 1.94 projected (+0.68).
Goals
- 14' Kylian Mbappé (pen.) Real Madrid · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
- 17' Álvaro Carreras Real Madrid · 0.20 xG chance 2–0
- 35' Jude Bellingham Real Madrid · 0.21 xG chance 3–0
- 51' Sergio Camello Rayo Vallecano · 0.10 xG chance 3–1
- 90' Kylian Mbappé Real Madrid · 0.09 xG chance 4–1
The model against the result
- Real Madrid
- 58% What happened
- Draw
- 25%
- Rayo Vallecano
- 16%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Real Madrid produced 0.68 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 24
- 18
- On target
- 11
- 7
- Inside the box
- 16
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 1.52
- 0.76
- Set-piece xG
- 0.39
- 0.36
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.91 for Real Madrid and 1.13 for Rayo Vallecano.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
42 shots · 3.85 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Real Madrid
- Rayo Vallecano
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.47 xG created 0.80 xGA
1.33 xG created 1.72 xGA
- W 1.49 created, 0.97 conceded against Villarreal
- W 1.34 created, 1.63 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
- L 1.89 created, 2.19 conceded against Sevilla
- D 0.42 created, 2.00 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
- L 1.21 created, 3.04 conceded against Barcelona
- W 1.61 created, 0.48 conceded against Racing de Santander
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
9 opportunities flagged2 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano to win | 17.00 | +179.8% | Lost |
| Real Madrid not to score | 19.00 | +132.6% | Lost |
| Real Madrid at most 1 goal | 5.50 | +120.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 8.50 | +113.5% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.00 | +66.3% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9.00 | +51.3% | Lost |
| Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals | 5.50 | +48.4% | Lost |
| Rayo Vallecano to score | 1.83 | +22.2% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | +16.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 58.4% | 83.4% | −25.0 pp | 1.71 |
| Draw | 25.1% | 11.0% | +14.1 pp | 3.98 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 16.5% | 5.5% | +10.9 pp | 6.08 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to score | 87.8% | 94.9% | −7.1 pp | 1.14 |
| Real Madrid not to score | 12.2% | 5.1% | +7.1 pp | 8.17 |
| Rayo Vallecano to score | 66.6% | 50.0% | +16.6 pp | 1.50 |
| Rayo Vallecano not to score | 33.4% | 50.0% | −16.6 pp | 3.00 |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 48.0% | +11.9 pp | 1.67 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.1% | 52.0% | −11.9 pp | 2.50 |
| Real Madrid 2+ goals | 59.8% | 82.8% | −22.9 pp | 1.67 |
| Real Madrid at most 1 goal | 40.2% | 17.2% | +22.9 pp | 2.49 |
| Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals | 27.0% | 17.2% | +9.8 pp | 3.71 |
| Rayo Vallecano at most 1 goal | 73.0% | 82.8% | −9.8 pp | 1.37 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | 89.4% | −6.2 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.8% | 10.6% | +6.2 pp | 5.95 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 76.2% | −17.8 pp | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.6% | 23.8% | +17.8 pp | 2.40 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Real Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Rayo Vallecano sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.