Espanyol 1:1 Sevilla: xG & match report · La Liga

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · La Liga

Espanyol Home 1.23 xG · 12 shots

Sevilla Away 0.53 xG · 6 shots

11 Espanyol had the better chances, but it finished level

Espanyol were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Sevilla's attack: 0.53 xG against 1.02 projected (−0.49).

Goals

85' Lucas Stassin Sevilla · 0.29 xG chance 0–1
90' Marcos Fernández Espanyol · 0.35 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Espanyol: 37%
Draw: 34% What happened
Sevilla: 29%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Espanyol 1.18 1.23 +0.05

Sevilla 1.02 0.53 -0.49

Sevilla produced 0.49 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Espanyol Sevilla

Shots: 12; 6
On target: 3; 3
Inside the box: 7; 3
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.87; 0.12
Set-piece xG: 0.36; 0.34
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.47 for Sevilla.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

18 shots · 1.69 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Espanyol
Sevilla
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Espanyol

1.25 xG created 1.46 xGA

W 0.76 created, 0.82 conceded against Athletic Club
W 0.79 created, 1.72 conceded against Osasuna
D 2.41 created, 1.40 conceded against Real Sociedad
W 1.55 created, 0.28 conceded against Levante UD
L 1.05 created, 2.71 conceded against Real Madrid
L 0.91 created, 1.82 conceded against Real Sociedad

Sevilla

1.12 xG created 1.27 xGA

W 0.87 created, 0.83 conceded against Villarreal
L 0.72 created, 1.00 conceded against Real Madrid
L 0.80 created, 1.59 conceded against Celta Vigo
W 2.19 created, 1.89 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
W 1.26 created, 1.37 conceded against Athletic Club
L 0.90 created, 0.93 conceded against Atlético Madrid

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Espanyol: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged2 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Espanyol against Sevilla before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.25	+9.9%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.73	+7.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Espanyol	37.2%	42.5%	−5.3 pp	2.69
Draw	33.8%	29.4%	+4.4 pp	2.96
Sevilla	29.0%	28.1%	+0.9 pp	3.45

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.1%	48.0%	+2.1 pp	2.00
Both teams not to score	49.9%	52.0%	−2.1 pp	2.00
Over 1.5 goals	68.8%	70.1%	−1.3 pp	1.45
Under 1.5 goals	31.2%	29.9%	+1.3 pp	3.20
Over 2.5 goals	38.0%	45.1%	−7.1 pp	2.63
Under 2.5 goals	62.0%	54.9%	+7.1 pp	1.61

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Espanyol sample: 20 matches
Sevilla sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.