Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 20:00
35d 18h to kick-offReal Sociedad – Rayo Vallecano
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Real Sociedad
- 35%
- Draw
- 30%
- Rayo Vallecano
- 35%
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.89 | 3.31 | 2.84 |
- Total goals
- 2.74
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
35% Rayo Vallecano to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 19th
- Rayo Vallecano attack v Real Sociedad defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 11th
- Rayo Vallecano defence v Real Sociedad attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.53 vs -0.60
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.36 – 1.37
- Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Real Sociedad | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.19 · 14th | (better) 1.27 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.68 · 15th | 1.76 · 16th |
| xGD / match | -0.50 · 14th | (better) -0.50 · 13th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.17 · 12th | 1.12 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.60 | (better) -0.53 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Rayo Vallecano clean sheet
- 23%
- Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals
- 41%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.1%
- 1:2
- 9.6%
- 2:1
- 9.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Real Sociedad sample
- 20 matches
- Rayo Vallecano sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Real Sociedad
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Rayo Vallecano
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.