Villarreal 3:1 Levante UD: xG & match report · La Liga

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 18:30

Full time

Match report · La Liga

Villarreal Home 4.27 xG · 21 shots

Levante UD Away 0.45 xG · 5 shots

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Villarreal were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Villarreal's attack: 4.27 xG against 1.62 projected (+2.65). Levante UD produced 0.45 xG against 1.32 projected (−0.87).

Goals

41' Ayoze Pérez Villarreal · 0.44 xG chance 1–0
42' Iván Romero Levante UD · 0.06 xG chance 1–1
54' Alberto Moleiro Villarreal · 0.79 xG chance 2–1
86' Georges Mikautadze Villarreal · 0.40 xG chance 3–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Villarreal: 43% What happened
Draw: 28%
Levante UD: 29%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Villarreal 1.62 4.27 +2.65

Levante UD 1.32 0.45 -0.87

Villarreal produced 2.65 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Villarreal Levante UD

Shots: 21; 5
On target: 6; 1
Inside the box: 13; 6
xG per shot: 0.19; 0.09
Open play xG: 3.86; 0.31
Set-piece xG: 0.07; 0.15
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 4.03 for Villarreal and 0.46 for Levante UD.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 4.39 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Villarreal
Levante UD
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Villarreal

2.06 xG created 1.39 xGA

D 0.67 created, 1.87 conceded against Racing de Santander
D 3.60 created, 0.78 conceded against Atlético Madrid
L 1.74 created, 0.73 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
L 1.14 created, 0.79 conceded against Deportivo La Coruña
L 1.89 created, 3.52 conceded against Real Betis
W 3.33 created, 0.63 conceded against Málaga

Levante UD

1.64 xG created 1.62 xGA

L 2.28 created, 1.51 conceded against Real Betis
L 0.28 created, 1.55 conceded against Espanyol
D 1.28 created, 0.70 conceded against Osasuna
W 2.76 created, 1.92 conceded against Real Betis
D 0.81 created, 1.46 conceded against Málaga
L 2.42 created, 2.58 conceded against Barcelona

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Villarreal: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged2 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Villarreal against Levante UD before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Levante UD to win	5.50	+57.8%	Lost
Villarreal not to score	8.00	+38.4%	Lost
Draw	4.75	+35.1%	Lost
Villarreal at most 1 goal	2.63	+31.8%	Lost
Levante UD 2+ goals	3.25	+26.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.75	+15.2%	Lost
Levante UD to score	1.44	+9.8%	Won
Both teams to score	1.62	+4.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Villarreal	42.9%	63.0%	−20.1 pp	2.33
Draw	28.4%	19.9%	+8.6 pp	3.52
Levante UD	28.7%	17.2%	+11.5 pp	3.49

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Villarreal to score	82.7%	88.1%	−5.4 pp	1.21
Villarreal not to score	17.3%	11.9%	+5.4 pp	5.78
Levante UD to score	76.0%	64.5%	+11.5 pp	1.32
Levante UD not to score	24.0%	35.5%	−11.5 pp	4.17
Both teams to score	64.5%	57.7%	+6.8 pp	1.55
Both teams not to score	35.5%	42.3%	−6.8 pp	2.81
Villarreal 2+ goals	49.8%	64.5%	−14.7 pp	2.01
Villarreal at most 1 goal	50.2%	35.5%	+14.7 pp	1.99
Levante UD 2+ goals	38.9%	29.1%	+9.8 pp	2.57
Levante UD at most 1 goal	61.1%	70.9%	−9.8 pp	1.64
Over 1.5 goals	83.1%	82.8%	+0.3 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.9%	17.2%	−0.3 pp	5.93
Over 2.5 goals	58.1%	65.6%	−7.5 pp	1.72
Under 2.5 goals	41.9%	34.4%	+7.5 pp	2.39

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Villarreal sample: 20 matches
Levante UD sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.