Famalicão 1:1 Sporting: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 21:30

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Match report · Liga Portugal

Famalicão Home 0.35 xG · 6 shots

Sporting Away 2.28 xG · 16 shots

11 Sporting had the better chances, but it finished level

Sporting were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Sporting's attack: 2.28 xG against 1.13 projected (+1.15). Famalicão produced 0.35 xG against 0.90 projected (−0.55).

Goals

81' Luis Javier Suárez (pen.) Sporting · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
90' Gonçalo Inácio (o.g.) Famalicão · 0.13 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Famalicão: 26%
Draw: 35% What happened
Sporting: 39%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Famalicão 0.90 0.35 -0.55

Sporting 1.13 2.28 +1.15

Sporting produced 1.15 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Famalicão Sporting

Shots: 6; 16
On target: 3; 5
Inside the box: 2; 12
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.15
Open play xG: 0.20; 1.57
Set-piece xG: 0.27; 0.08
Penalties: 0; 1

Famalicão's shots add up to 0.47 xG and Sporting's to 2.47; the published figures are 0.35 and 2.28.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 2.94 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Famalicão
Sporting
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Famalicão

0.95 xG created 0.95 xGA

W 0.56 created, 0.46 conceded against FC Alverca
D 1.47 created, 1.06 conceded against Estoril Praia
L 0.59 created, 1.61 conceded against Marítimo
L 1.05 created, 1.36 conceded against Santa Clara
D 0.23 created, 0.28 conceded against Gil Vicente
D 1.80 created, 0.94 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora

Sporting

2.03 xG created 0.63 xGA

W 1.65 created, 0.68 conceded against Gil Vicente
D 2.63 created, 1.01 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
W 1.12 created, 1.12 conceded against Vitória SC
W 2.12 created, 0.41 conceded against FC Alverca
W 1.66 created, 0.47 conceded against Rio Ave
W 3.00 created, 0.08 conceded against CD Nacional

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Famalicão: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged4 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Famalicão against Sporting before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Sporting not to score	6.50	+92.1%	Lost
Famalicão to win	7.00	+82.3%	Lost
Sporting at most 1 goal	2.25	+54.0%	Won
Draw	4.20	+47.0%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	3.75	+34.0%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.00	+33.9%	Won
Both teams not to score	2.00	+8.5%	Lost
Famalicão to score	1.62	+0.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Famalicão	26.0%	13.5%	+12.5 pp	3.84
Draw	35.0%	22.5%	+12.5 pp	2.86
Sporting	39.0%	63.9%	−25.0 pp	2.57

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Famalicão to score	62.1%	57.7%	+4.4 pp	1.61
Famalicão not to score	37.9%	42.3%	−4.4 pp	2.64
Sporting to score	70.5%	85.4%	−15.0 pp	1.42
Sporting not to score	29.5%	14.6%	+15.0 pp	3.38
Both teams to score	45.7%	53.3%	−7.6 pp	2.19
Both teams not to score	54.3%	46.7%	+7.6 pp	1.84
Famalicão 2+ goals	22.2%	21.7%	+0.5 pp	4.51
Famalicão at most 1 goal	77.8%	78.3%	−0.5 pp	1.28
Sporting 2+ goals	31.5%	58.9%	−27.3 pp	3.17
Sporting at most 1 goal	68.5%	41.1%	+27.3 pp	1.46
Over 1.5 goals	64.3%	75.0%	−10.7 pp	1.56
Under 1.5 goals	35.7%	25.0%	+10.7 pp	2.80
Over 2.5 goals	33.0%	52.6%	−19.6 pp	3.03
Under 2.5 goals	67.0%	47.4%	+19.6 pp	1.49

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Famalicão sample: 20 matches
Sporting sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.