Sporting 2:0 CD Nacional: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 21:30

Full time

Match report · Liga Portugal

Sporting Home 3.00 xG · 19 shots

CD Nacional Away 0.08 xG · 3 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

Sporting were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 65%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Sporting's attack: 3.00 xG against 1.98 projected (+1.02). CD Nacional produced 0.08 xG against 0.79 projected (−0.71).

Goals

32' Luis Javier Suárez (pen.) Sporting · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
49' Flávio Gonçalves Sporting · 0.33 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Sporting: 65% What happened
Draw: 23%
CD Nacional: 11%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Sporting 1.98 3.00 +1.02

CD Nacional 0.79 0.08 -0.71

Sporting produced 1.02 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Sporting CD Nacional

Shots: 19; 3
On target: 8; 2
Inside the box: 10; 0
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.03
Open play xG: 2.10; 0.04
Set-piece xG: 0.11; 0.04
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.21 for Sporting.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 3.11 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Sporting
CD Nacional
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Sporting

1.79 xG created 0.73 xGA

W 1.58 created, 0.70 conceded against Rio Ave
W 1.65 created, 0.68 conceded against Gil Vicente
D 2.63 created, 1.01 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
W 1.12 created, 1.12 conceded against Vitória SC
W 2.12 created, 0.41 conceded against FC Alverca
W 1.66 created, 0.47 conceded against Rio Ave

CD Nacional

1.02 xG created 1.71 xGA

L 0.61 created, 1.37 conceded against Santa Clara
W 0.93 created, 1.38 conceded against Vitória SC
D 1.23 created, 1.43 conceded against Santa Clara
W 2.08 created, 0.82 conceded against Estoril Praia
L 0.42 created, 3.14 conceded against Vitória SC
L 0.83 created, 2.10 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Sporting: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Sporting against CD Nacional before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	7.50	+76.1%	Lost
CD Nacional to win	15.00	+67.5%	Lost
Sporting not to score	13.00	+51.1%	Lost
Sporting at most 1 goal	3.75	+45.6%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.10	+42.5%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	7.00	+37.3%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.05	+7.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sporting	65.3%	81.1%	−15.7 pp	1.53
Draw	23.5%	12.6%	+10.9 pp	4.26
CD Nacional	11.2%	6.3%	+4.9 pp	8.95

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sporting to score	88.4%	92.6%	−4.2 pp	1.13
Sporting not to score	11.6%	7.4%	+4.2 pp	8.61
CD Nacional to score	57.7%	53.7%	+4.1 pp	1.73
CD Nacional not to score	42.3%	46.3%	−4.1 pp	2.37
Both teams to score	52.4%	45.3%	+7.1 pp	1.91
Both teams not to score	47.6%	54.7%	−7.1 pp	2.10
Sporting 2+ goals	61.2%	75.0%	−13.8 pp	1.63
Sporting at most 1 goal	38.8%	25.0%	+13.8 pp	2.58
CD Nacional 2+ goals	18.0%	18.9%	−0.9 pp	5.55
CD Nacional at most 1 goal	82.0%	81.1%	+0.9 pp	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	80.4%	86.4%	−6.0 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.6%	13.6%	+6.0 pp	5.10
Over 2.5 goals	54.0%	69.4%	−15.4 pp	1.85
Under 2.5 goals	46.0%	30.6%	+15.4 pp	2.18

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Sporting sample: 20 matches
CD Nacional sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.