Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 16:30
Full timeCD Nacional 2:3 CF Estrela Amadora
CD Nacional were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. CF Estrela Amadora won 3–2. The biggest difference was CF Estrela Amadora's attack: 2.10 xG against 1.13 projected (+0.97). CD Nacional produced 0.83 xG against 1.49 projected (−0.66).
Goals
- 3' Wesley Gasolina CD Nacional · 0.02 xG chance 1–0
- 45' Ianis Stoica (pen.) CF Estrela Amadora · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
- 62' Abraham Marcus CF Estrela Amadora · 0.46 xG chance 1–2
- 66' Pablo Messias Cardozo CD Nacional · 0.53 xG chance 2–2
- 83' Leandro Antonetti CF Estrela Amadora · 0.12 xG chance 2–3
The model against the result
- CD Nacional
- 44%
- Draw
- 30%
- CF Estrela Amadora
- 26% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
CF Estrela Amadora produced 0.97 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 14
- On target
- 5
- 4
- Inside the box
- 4
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.16
- Open play xG
- 0.66
- 1.14
- Set-piece xG
- 0.18
- 0.22
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.83 for CD Nacional and 1.32 for CF Estrela Amadora.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 3.02 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- CD Nacional
- CF Estrela Amadora
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.18 xG created 1.63 xGA
- L 1.83 created, 1.64 conceded against AVS - Futebol SAD
- L 0.61 created, 1.37 conceded against Santa Clara
- W 0.93 created, 1.38 conceded against Vitória SC
- D 1.23 created, 1.43 conceded against Santa Clara
- W 2.08 created, 0.82 conceded against Estoril Praia
- L 0.42 created, 3.14 conceded against Vitória SC
1.29 xG created 2.06 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional to win | 2.35 | +3.0% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | +1.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional | 43.8% | 40.3% | +3.5 pp | 2.28 |
| Draw | 30.2% | 29.1% | +1.0 pp | 3.32 |
| CF Estrela Amadora | 26.0% | 30.6% | −4.6 pp | 3.85 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 58.2% | 53.3% | +4.8 pp | 1.72 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.8% | 46.7% | −4.8 pp | 2.39 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 48.7% | +1.2 pp | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 51.3% | −1.2 pp | 1.99 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- CD Nacional sample
- 20 matches
- CF Estrela Amadora sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.