xgEdge

Expected goals

CF Estrela Amadora expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Liga Portugal · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

CF Estrela Amadora's attacking and defensive expected goals in Liga Portugal 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

CF Estrela Amadora xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.23 xG per match
#11/18
Attack (xG per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Benfica 2.32
#2 FC Porto 2.26
#3 Sporting 2.01
#4 Vitória SC 1.77
#5 FC Alverca 1.40
#6 Santa Clara 1.35
#7 Gil Vicente 1.31
#8 Académico Viseu FC 1.30
#9 Sporting Braga 1.25
#10 FC Arouca 1.24
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 1.23
#12 CD Nacional 1.15
#13 Famalicão 0.99
#14 Marítimo 0.94
#15 Casa Pia 0.89
#16 Estoril Praia 0.85
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.54
League avg
1.31
Total
8.62 7 matches
Defence
1.63 xGA per match
#12/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Sporting Braga 0.65
#2 Benfica 0.65
#3 Santa Clara 0.69
#4 Vitória SC 0.77
#5 Sporting 0.79
#6 Gil Vicente 0.88
#7 FC Porto 0.98
#8 Famalicão 1.25
#9 Marítimo 1.32
#10 FC Arouca 1.38
#11 Estoril Praia 1.62
#12 CF Estrela Amadora 1.63
#13 Académico Viseu FC 1.71
#14 Moreirense 1.73
#15 FC Alverca 1.74
#16 Casa Pia 1.77
#17 CD Nacional 1.87
#18 Rio Ave 1.92
League avg
1.31
Total
11.39 7 matches
xG difference
-0.40 xGD per match
#12/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Benfica +1.66
#2 FC Porto +1.28
#3 Sporting +1.22
#4 Vitória SC +0.99
#5 Santa Clara +0.67
#6 Sporting Braga +0.60
#7 Gil Vicente +0.43
#8 FC Arouca -0.14
#9 Famalicão -0.26
#10 FC Alverca -0.34
#11 Marítimo -0.38
#12 CF Estrela Amadora -0.40
#13 Académico Viseu FC -0.41
#14 CD Nacional -0.72
#15 Estoril Praia -0.76
#16 Casa Pia -0.87
#17 Moreirense -1.06
#18 Rio Ave -1.38
League avg
0.00
Total
-2.77 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.13 xPts per match
#10/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Benfica 2.40
#2 FC Porto 2.22
#3 Sporting 2.17
#4 Vitória SC 1.96
#5 Santa Clara 1.93
#6 Sporting Braga 1.83
#7 Gil Vicente 1.76
#8 FC Arouca 1.37
#9 Famalicão 1.18
#10 CF Estrela Amadora 1.13
#11 Académico Viseu FC 1.08
#12 Marítimo 1.07
#13 CD Nacional 1.06
#14 FC Alverca 1.06
#15 Casa Pia 0.91
#16 Estoril Praia 0.82
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.46
League avg
1.39
Total
7.88 vs 10 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

CF Estrela Amadora's underlying numbers sit close to the Liga Portugal average. They rank #12 for xG difference at -0.40 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 14 goals are 5.38 above 8.62 xG, while 10 points are 2.12 above 7.88 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
14 8.62 +5.38 scored 5.38 more than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
14 11.39 +2.61 conceded 2.61 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
10 7.88 +2.12 2.12 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

CF Estrela Amadora are 5.38 goals above their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at +6.22, against Rio Ave on Mon 14/09.

Goals
14
xG
8.62
Gap
+5.38
Sat 08/08 Sat 15/08 Sun 30/08 Sat 05/09 Thu 10/09 Mon 14/09 Sun 20/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +0.99 +1.70 +2.60 +3.66 +5.09 +6.22 +5.38 +0.99 +0.71 +0.90 +1.06 +1.43 +1.13 -0.84 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
CF Estrela Amadora: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 08/08 Sporting 2 1.01 +0.99 +0.99
Sat 15/08 FC Alverca 2 1.29 +0.71 +1.70
Sun 30/08 CD Nacional 3 2.10 +0.90 +2.60
Sat 05/09 Famalicão 2 0.94 +1.06 +3.66
Thu 10/09 Sporting Braga 2 0.57 +1.43 +5.09
Mon 14/09 Rio Ave 3 1.87 +1.13 +6.22
Sun 20/09 Académico Viseu FC 0 0.84 -0.84 +5.38

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

CF Estrela Amadora xG trend

Current form +0.01 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 7 matches. The worst was against Académico Viseu FC on Sun 20/09 (-1.70).

npxG · last 6
1.21
npxGA · last 6
1.20
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 -1.62 Sat 08/08 -0.26 Sat 15/08 +0.49 Sun 30/08 -0.05 Sat 05/09 -0.04 Thu 10/09 +1.62 Mon 14/09 -1.70 Sun 20/09 -0.22 season avg
CF Estrela Amadora: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 08/08 Sporting 1.01 2.63 -1.62 -1.62
Sat 15/08 FC Alverca 1.49 1.75 -0.26 -0.94
Sun 30/08 CD Nacional 1.32 0.83 +0.49 -0.46
Sat 05/09 Famalicão 0.97 1.02 -0.05 -0.36
Thu 10/09 Sporting Braga 0.57 0.61 -0.04 -0.30
Mon 14/09 Rio Ave 2.07 0.45 +1.62 +0.02
Sun 20/09 Académico Viseu FC 0.85 2.55 -1.70 -0.22

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.18 npxG and 1.41 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 10 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
−0.04 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 16 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
−0.14 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.04 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · tied number 10 hardest of 18

  1. Académico Viseu FC Home −0.07
  2. Rio Ave Away −0.55
  3. Sporting Braga Home +0.15
  4. Famalicão Home +0.02
  5. CD Nacional Away −0.27
  6. FC Alverca Away −0.10
  7. Sporting Home +0.55

Last 5

−0.14 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 16 hardest of 18

  1. Académico Viseu FC Home −0.07
  2. Rio Ave Away −0.55
  3. Sporting Braga Home +0.15
  4. Famalicão Home +0.02
  5. CD Nacional Away −0.27

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

CF Estrela Amadora shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. CF Estrela Amadora take 13.1 shots a match (league 12.2) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), =6 in Liga Portugal for volume and #11 for quality. 70% of their shots come from inside the box (league 63%), and set pieces produce 17% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
13.1 shots per match
=6/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Benfica 19.1
=1 Vitória SC 19.1
#3 FC Porto 16.0
#4 Gil Vicente 14.0
#5 Sporting 13.4
=6 CF Estrela Amadora 13.1
=6 Santa Clara 13.1
#8 Estoril Praia 12.7
#9 Sporting Braga 12.5
#10 FC Alverca 11.9
#11 FC Arouca 10.9
#12 CD Nacional 10.7
#13 Marítimo 10.4
#14 Casa Pia 10.3
#15 Famalicão 9.6
#16 Académico Viseu FC 9.3
#17 Moreirense 7.3
#18 Rio Ave 7.1
League avg
12.2
Total
92 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#11/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Académico Viseu FC 0.15
#2 Sporting 0.14
#3 FC Porto 0.12
#4 Benfica 0.11
#5 FC Alverca 0.11
#6 FC Arouca 0.11
#7 CD Nacional 0.10
#8 Sporting Braga 0.10
#9 Santa Clara 0.10
#10 Famalicão 0.09
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 0.09
#12 Vitória SC 0.09
#13 Marítimo 0.08
#14 Moreirense 0.08
#15 Gil Vicente 0.07
#16 Casa Pia 0.07
#17 Estoril Praia 0.06
#18 Rio Ave 0.06
League avg
0.10
Total
8.28 npxG from 92 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
11.6 shots per match
#8/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Vitória SC 7.1
#2 Benfica 7.6
#3 Santa Clara 8.1
#4 Sporting 8.6
#5 Sporting Braga 8.7
#6 Gil Vicente 9.8
#7 FC Porto 10.7
#8 CF Estrela Amadora 11.6
#9 Famalicão 12.0
#10 FC Alverca 12.1
#11 Marítimo 13.4
#12 Estoril Praia 13.9
#13 FC Arouca 14.9
#14 CD Nacional 15.1
=15 Casa Pia 15.7
=15 Moreirense 15.7
#17 Rio Ave 16.9
#18 Académico Viseu FC 17.6
League avg
12.2
Total
81 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.12 npxGA per shot
#17/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Sporting Braga 0.06
#2 Santa Clara 0.07
#3 Gil Vicente 0.08
#4 Sporting 0.08
#5 FC Porto 0.08
#6 Académico Viseu FC 0.08
#7 Benfica 0.09
#8 Marítimo 0.09
#9 FC Arouca 0.09
#10 Famalicão 0.10
#11 Casa Pia 0.10
#12 Moreirense 0.10
#13 CD Nacional 0.10
#14 Estoril Praia 0.11
#15 Rio Ave 0.11
#16 Vitória SC 0.11
#17 CF Estrela Amadora 0.12
#18 FC Alverca 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
9.84 npxGA from 81 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

70% inside the box

League avg 63%

From 64 of 92 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

58% allowed inside the box

League avg 63%

From 47 of 81 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

83% open play · 17% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 1.4 of 8.3 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

77% open play · 23% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 2.2 of 9.8 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

CF Estrela Amadora home and away xG

CF Estrela Amadora per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 0.84 1.75
xGA / match 1.90 1.27
xGD / match -1.06 +0.48
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.68 1.73

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every CF Estrela Amadora match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.23
xGA / match
1.63
xGD / match
-0.40
Points
10 of 21
  1. Sun 20/09 Académico Viseu FC H Weakest underlying xG 0.84 xGA 2.54 xGD -1.70
  2. Mon 14/09 Rio Ave A xG 1.87 xGA 1.23 P xGD +0.64
  3. Thu 10/09 Sporting Braga H xG 0.57 xGA 0.61 xGD -0.04
  4. Sat 05/09 Famalicão H xG 0.94 xGA 1.80 P xGD -0.86
  5. Sun 30/08 CD Nacional A Best underlying xG 2.10 P xGA 0.83 xGD +1.27
  6. Sat 15/08 FC Alverca A xG 1.29 xGA 1.75 xGD -0.46
  7. Sat 08/08 Sporting H xG 1.01 xGA 2.63 xGD -1.62

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

CF Estrela Amadora in Liga Portugal

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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