Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:30
17d 21h to kick-offCF Estrela Amadora – Casa Pia
Model updated 6 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- CF Estrela Amadora
- 47%
- Draw
- 31%
- Casa Pia
- 22%
| CF Estrela Amadora | Draw | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.14 | 3.21 | 4.52 |
- Total goals
- 2.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans CF Estrela Amadora
47% CF Estrela Amadora to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 13th
- CF Estrela Amadora attack v Casa Pia defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 16th
- CF Estrela Amadora defence v Casa Pia attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.19 vs -0.91
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.44 – 0.96
- CF Estrela Amadora v Casa Pia
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | CF Estrela Amadora | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.23 · 11th | 0.89 · 15th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.63 · 12th | 1.77 · 16th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.40 · 12th | -0.87 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.13 · 10th | 0.91 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.19 | -0.91 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- CF Estrela Amadora clean sheet
- 35%
- CF Estrela Amadora 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.1%
- 2:1
- 10.8%
- 1:0
- 10.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- CF Estrela Amadora sample
- 20 matches
- Casa Pia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · CF Estrela Amadora
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Casa Pia
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.