CF Estrela Amadora 0:2 Académico Viseu FC: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 16:30

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Match report · Liga Portugal

CF Estrela Amadora Home 0.84 xG · 16 shots

Académico Viseu FC Away 2.54 xG · 8 shots

02 The scoreline reflected the chances

CF Estrela Amadora were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. Académico Viseu FC won 2–0. The biggest difference was Académico Viseu FC's attack: 2.54 xG against 1.16 projected (+1.38). CF Estrela Amadora produced 0.84 xG against 1.54 projected (−0.70).

Goals

10' André Clóvis Académico Viseu FC · 0.91 xG chance 0–1
24' André Clóvis Académico Viseu FC · 0.59 xG chance 0–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

CF Estrela Amadora: 44%
Draw: 30%
Académico Viseu FC: 26% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

CF Estrela Amadora 1.54 0.84 -0.70

Académico Viseu FC 1.16 2.54 +1.38

Académico Viseu FC produced 1.38 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

CF Estrela Amadora Académico Viseu FC

Shots: 16; 8
On target: 2; 4
Inside the box: 10; 6
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.31
Open play xG: 0.75; 1.50
Set-piece xG: 0.10; 0.99
Penalties: —; —

CF Estrela Amadora's shots add up to 0.85 xG and Académico Viseu FC's to 2.49; the published figures are 0.84 and 2.54.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 3.34 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

CF Estrela Amadora
Académico Viseu FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

CF Estrela Amadora

1.30 xG created 1.47 xGA

D 1.01 created, 2.63 conceded against Sporting
D 1.29 created, 1.75 conceded against FC Alverca
W 2.10 created, 0.83 conceded against CD Nacional
D 0.94 created, 1.80 conceded against Famalicão
W 0.57 created, 0.61 conceded against Sporting Braga
D 1.87 created, 1.23 conceded against Rio Ave

Académico Viseu FC

1.09 xG created 1.85 xGA

D 1.18 created, 3.11 conceded against Benfica
L 0.58 created, 1.27 conceded against Santa Clara
D 1.84 created, 1.28 conceded against Marítimo
L 0.80 created, 1.47 conceded against FC Porto
W 0.33 created, 1.88 conceded against Gil Vicente
W 1.83 created, 2.10 conceded against Vitória SC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged3 won4 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on CF Estrela Amadora against Académico Viseu FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.80	+7.7%	Lost
Académico Viseu FC 2+ goals	3.25	+6.8%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	2.05	+6.7%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.33	+5.7%	Won
CF Estrela Amadora 2+ goals	2.20	+3.2%	Lost
CF Estrela Amadora to score	1.25	+1.4%	Lost
Académico Viseu FC to score	1.40	+0.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
CF Estrela Amadora	44.3%	43.8%	+0.5 pp	2.26
Draw	29.7%	28.5%	+1.1 pp	3.37
Académico Viseu FC	26.1%	27.7%	−1.6 pp	3.84

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
CF Estrela Amadora to score	81.1%	75.0%	+6.1 pp	1.23
CF Estrela Amadora not to score	18.9%	25.0%	−6.1 pp	5.30
Académico Viseu FC to score	71.6%	66.3%	+5.3 pp	1.40
Académico Viseu FC not to score	28.4%	33.7%	−5.3 pp	3.52
Both teams to score	59.8%	52.0%	+7.8 pp	1.67
Both teams not to score	40.2%	48.0%	−7.8 pp	2.49
CF Estrela Amadora 2+ goals	46.9%	42.3%	+4.6 pp	2.13
CF Estrela Amadora at most 1 goal	53.1%	57.7%	−4.6 pp	1.88
Académico Viseu FC 2+ goals	32.9%	29.1%	+3.8 pp	3.04
Académico Viseu FC at most 1 goal	67.1%	70.9%	−3.8 pp	1.49
Over 1.5 goals	79.3%	70.9%	+8.4 pp	1.26
Under 1.5 goals	20.7%	29.1%	−8.4 pp	4.84
Over 2.5 goals	52.1%	46.1%	+6.0 pp	1.92
Under 2.5 goals	47.9%	53.9%	−6.0 pp	2.09

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
CF Estrela Amadora sample: 20 matches
Académico Viseu FC sample: 6 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

Académico Viseu FC has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.