Gil Vicente 0:1 Académico Viseu FC: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 21:30

Full time

Match report · Liga Portugal

Gil Vicente Home 1.88 xG · 34 shots

Académico Viseu FC Away 0.33 xG · 6 shots

01 The result went against the chances

Gil Vicente were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. Académico Viseu FC won 1–0. The biggest difference was Gil Vicente's attack: 1.88 xG against 1.14 projected (+0.74). Académico Viseu FC produced 0.33 xG against 1.01 projected (−0.68).

Goals

4' João Guilherme Académico Viseu FC · 0.04 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Gil Vicente: 36%
Draw: 34%
Académico Viseu FC: 29% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Gil Vicente 1.14 1.88 +0.74

Académico Viseu FC 1.01 0.33 -0.68

Gil Vicente produced 0.74 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Gil Vicente Académico Viseu FC

Shots: 34; 6
On target: 7; 1
Inside the box: 24; 2
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.06
Open play xG: 1.51; 0.33
Set-piece xG: 0.37; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

40 shots · 2.21 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Gil Vicente
Académico Viseu FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Gil Vicente

0.97 xG created 0.97 xGA

D 0.66 created, 1.58 conceded against Rio Ave
L 0.81 created, 1.39 conceded against FC Arouca
L 0.68 created, 1.65 conceded against Sporting
W 1.66 created, 0.19 conceded against Rio Ave
W 1.74 created, 0.76 conceded against Casa Pia
D 0.28 created, 0.23 conceded against Famalicão

Académico Viseu FC

1.10 xG created 1.78 xGA

D 1.18 created, 3.11 conceded against Benfica
L 0.58 created, 1.27 conceded against Santa Clara
D 1.84 created, 1.28 conceded against Marítimo
L 0.80 created, 1.47 conceded against FC Porto

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Gil Vicente against Académico Viseu FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	2.10	+2.6%	Lost
Académico Viseu FC to win	3.50	+2.6%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.50	+1.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Gil Vicente	36.4%	40.8%	−4.4 pp	2.74
Draw	34.2%	32.4%	+1.9 pp	2.92
Académico Viseu FC	29.3%	26.8%	+2.5 pp	3.41

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	48.9%	44.3%	+4.6 pp	2.05
Both teams not to score	51.1%	55.7%	−4.6 pp	1.96
Over 1.5 goals	67.4%	62.5%	+4.9 pp	1.48
Under 1.5 goals	32.6%	37.5%	−4.9 pp	3.07
Over 2.5 goals	36.5%	37.5%	−1.0 pp	2.74
Under 2.5 goals	63.5%	62.5%	+1.0 pp	1.58

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Gil Vicente sample: 20 matches
Académico Viseu FC sample: 4 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Académico Viseu FC has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.