Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:30
25d 21h to kick-offMoreirense – CF Estrela Amadora
Model updated 5 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Moreirense
- 28%
- Draw
- 34%
- CF Estrela Amadora
- 38%
| Moreirense | Draw | CF Estrela Amadora | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.60 | 2.94 | 2.61 |
- Total goals
- 2.16
- Over 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score
- 49%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans CF Estrela Amadora
38% CF Estrela Amadora to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 15th
- CF Estrela Amadora attack v Moreirense defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 18th
- CF Estrela Amadora defence v Moreirense attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.19 vs -1.02
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.98 – 1.18
- Moreirense v CF Estrela Amadora
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Moreirense | CF Estrela Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.68 · 17th | (better) 1.23 · 11th |
| xGA / match | 1.73 · 14th | (better) 1.63 · 12th |
| xGD / match | -1.06 · 17th | (better) -0.40 · 12th |
| xPts / match | 0.68 · 17th | (better) 1.13 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.02 | (better) -0.19 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 40% of the model's distribution.
- CF Estrela Amadora clean sheet
- 35%
- CF Estrela Amadora 2+ goals
- 33%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score: no
- 51%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.3%
- 0:0
- 11.7%
- 0:1
- 11.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Moreirense sample
- 20 matches
- CF Estrela Amadora sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Moreirense
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · CF Estrela Amadora
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.