Vitória SC 1:1 Moreirense: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · Liga Portugal

Vitória SC Home 1.07 xG · 15 shots

Moreirense Away 0.52 xG · 7 shots

11 Vitória SC had the better chances, but it finished level

Vitória SC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 70%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Vitória SC's attack: 1.07 xG against 1.94 projected (−0.87).

Goals

52' Tiago Andrade Moreirense · 0.10 xG chance 0–1
90' Toni Borevković Vitória SC · 0.32 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Vitória SC: 70%
Draw: 22% What happened
Moreirense: 8%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Vitória SC 1.94 1.07 -0.87

Moreirense 0.61 0.52 -0.09

Vitória SC produced 0.87 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Vitória SC Moreirense

Shots: 15; 7
On target: 3; 3
Inside the box: 11; 4
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.07
Open play xG: 0.64; 0.50
Set-piece xG: 0.42; 0.02
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.06 for Vitória SC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 1.58 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Vitória SC
Moreirense
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Vitória SC

1.88 xG created 0.82 xGA

L 2.22 created, 0.49 conceded against FC Arouca
L 1.12 created, 1.12 conceded against Sporting
W 3.14 created, 0.42 conceded against CD Nacional
L 0.23 created, 0.83 conceded against Sporting Braga
D 2.48 created, 0.21 conceded against Casa Pia
L 2.10 created, 1.83 conceded against Académico Viseu FC

Moreirense

0.70 xG created 1.84 xGA

D 0.21 created, 1.50 conceded against Sporting Braga
L 0.49 created, 2.14 conceded against FC Arouca
W 0.28 created, 0.77 conceded against Casa Pia
L 0.85 created, 2.90 conceded against FC Porto
L 0.39 created, 2.99 conceded against Benfica
W 2.00 created, 0.76 conceded against Marítimo

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Vitória SC: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Vitória SC against Moreirense before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Vitória SC to win	1.52	+5.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Vitória SC	69.5%	62.1%	+7.4 pp	1.44
Draw	22.4%	22.2%	+0.3 pp	4.45
Moreirense	8.0%	15.7%	−7.6 pp	12.46

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Over 2.5 goals	48.1%	49.6%	−1.5 pp	2.08
Under 2.5 goals	51.9%	50.4%	+1.5 pp	1.93

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Vitória SC sample: 20 matches
Moreirense sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.