Wednesday, 09/09/2026 at 21:45
Full timeMoreirense 0:4 Benfica
Benfica were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 64%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was Benfica's attack: 2.99 xG against 1.80 projected (+1.19). Moreirense produced 0.39 xG against 0.67 projected (−0.28).
Goals
- 45' Vangelis Pavlidis (pen.) Benfica · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
- 55' Andreas Schjelderup Benfica · 0.05 xG chance 0–2
- 59' Gianluca Prestianni Benfica · 0.09 xG chance 0–3
- 72' Fredrik Aursnes Benfica · 0.39 xG chance 0–4
The model against the result
- Moreirense
- 10%
- Draw
- 25%
- Benfica
- 64% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Benfica produced 1.19 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 8
- 21
- On target
- 1
- 9
- Inside the box
- 5
- 16
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.15
- Open play xG
- 0.27
- 1.59
- Set-piece xG
- 0.13
- 0.67
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.39 for Moreirense and 2.22 for Benfica.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 3.48 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Moreirense
- Benfica
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.51 xG created 1.79 xGA
2.82 xG created 0.59 xGA
- D 3.19 created, 0.21 conceded against Sporting Braga
- W 4.22 created, 1.52 conceded against Estoril Praia
- D 3.11 created, 1.18 conceded against Académico Viseu FC
- W 3.04 created, 0.12 conceded against Casa Pia
- W 2.03 created, 0.36 conceded against Estoril Praia
- W 1.31 created, 0.12 conceded against Marítimo
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged0 won8 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 8.00 | +101.7% | Lost |
| Benfica not to score | 13.00 | +85.7% | Lost |
| Benfica at most 1 goal | 3.75 | +66.7% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.00 | +52.6% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | +46.7% | Lost |
| Moreirense to win | 12.00 | +24.2% | Lost |
| Moreirense to score | 2.00 | +3.6% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | +1.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 10.4% | 7.8% | +2.5 pp | 9.66 |
| Draw | 25.2% | 11.7% | +13.5 pp | 3.97 |
| Benfica | 64.4% | 80.4% | −16.0 pp | 1.55 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense to score | 51.8% | 46.3% | +5.4 pp | 1.93 |
| Moreirense not to score | 48.2% | 53.7% | −5.4 pp | 2.07 |
| Benfica to score | 85.7% | 92.6% | −6.9 pp | 1.17 |
| Benfica not to score | 14.3% | 7.4% | +6.9 pp | 7.00 |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | 42.3% | +3.6 pp | 2.18 |
| Both teams not to score | 54.1% | 57.7% | −3.6 pp | 1.85 |
| Moreirense 2+ goals | 13.2% | 13.6% | −0.4 pp | 7.57 |
| Moreirense at most 1 goal | 86.8% | 86.4% | +0.4 pp | 1.15 |
| Benfica 2+ goals | 55.5% | 75.0% | −19.5 pp | 1.80 |
| Benfica at most 1 goal | 44.5% | 25.0% | +19.5 pp | 2.25 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | 84.2% | −9.6 pp | 1.34 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 15.8% | +9.6 pp | 3.93 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | 65.2% | −19.5 pp | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.3% | 34.8% | +19.5 pp | 1.84 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Moreirense sample
- 20 matches
- Benfica sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 12 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 12 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.