Sporting Braga 1:0 Vitória SC: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 21:15

Full time

Match report · Liga Portugal

Sporting Braga Home 0.83 xG · 9 shots

Vitória SC Away 0.23 xG · 8 shots

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

Vitória SC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. Sporting Braga won 1–0. The biggest difference was Vitória SC's attack: 0.23 xG against 1.11 projected (−0.88).

Goals

79' Diego Rodrigues Sporting Braga · 0.04 xG chance 1–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Sporting Braga: 29% What happened
Draw: 35%
Vitória SC: 36%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Sporting Braga 1.00 0.83 -0.17

Vitória SC 1.11 0.23 -0.88

Vitória SC produced 0.88 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Sporting Braga Vitória SC

Shots: 9; 8
On target: 4; 2
Inside the box: 6; 2
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.03
Open play xG: 0.75; 0.13
Set-piece xG: 0.07; 0.09
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.83 for Sporting Braga and 0.23 for Vitória SC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

17 shots · 1.04 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Sporting Braga
Vitória SC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Sporting Braga

0.86 xG created 1.34 xGA

W 0.47 created, 0.48 conceded against Casa Pia
L 0.15 created, 2.55 conceded against Santa Clara
D 0.41 created, 0.89 conceded against Estoril Praia
D 0.21 created, 3.19 conceded against Benfica
D 2.41 created, 0.73 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
D 1.50 created, 0.21 conceded against Moreirense

Vitória SC

1.55 xG created 1.34 xGA

L 0.52 created, 4.22 conceded against Sporting
L 0.94 created, 0.88 conceded against Casa Pia
L 1.38 created, 0.93 conceded against CD Nacional
L 2.22 created, 0.49 conceded against FC Arouca
L 1.12 created, 1.12 conceded against Sporting
W 3.14 created, 0.42 conceded against CD Nacional

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Sporting Braga: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Sporting Braga against Vitória SC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Vitória SC to win	4.84	+73.7%	Lost
Draw	3.65	+26.4%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.90	+22.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sporting Braga	29.5%	53.8%	−24.3 pp	3.39
Draw	34.6%	26.3%	+8.3 pp	2.89
Vitória SC	35.9%	19.9%	+16.0 pp	2.79

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Over 2.5 goals	35.5%	49.1%	−13.6 pp	2.81
Under 2.5 goals	64.5%	50.9%	+13.6 pp	1.55

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Sporting Braga sample: 20 matches
Vitória SC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.