Vitória SC 1:0 CD Nacional: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · Liga Portugal

Vitória SC Home 3.14 xG · 23 shots

CD Nacional Away 0.42 xG · 7 shots

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

Vitória SC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Vitória SC's attack: 3.14 xG against 1.67 projected (+1.47). CD Nacional produced 0.42 xG against 0.98 projected (−0.56).

Goals

4' Gustavo Silva Vitória SC · 0.23 xG chance 1–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Vitória SC: 53% What happened
Draw: 28%
CD Nacional: 19%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Vitória SC 1.67 3.14 +1.47

CD Nacional 0.98 0.42 -0.56

Vitória SC produced 1.47 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Vitória SC CD Nacional

Shots: 23; 7
On target: 5; 0
Inside the box: 13; 3
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.06
Open play xG: 2.09; 0.42
Set-piece xG: 0.27; 0.00
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.35 for Vitória SC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 3.60 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Vitória SC
CD Nacional
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Vitória SC

1.22 xG created 1.37 xGA

W 1.13 created, 0.59 conceded against Rio Ave
L 0.52 created, 4.22 conceded against Sporting
L 0.94 created, 0.88 conceded against Casa Pia
L 1.38 created, 0.93 conceded against CD Nacional
L 2.22 created, 0.49 conceded against FC Arouca
L 1.12 created, 1.12 conceded against Sporting

CD Nacional

1.32 xG created 1.34 xGA

W 1.26 created, 1.38 conceded against Tondela
L 1.83 created, 1.64 conceded against AVS - Futebol SAD
L 0.61 created, 1.37 conceded against Santa Clara
W 0.93 created, 1.38 conceded against Vitória SC
D 1.23 created, 1.43 conceded against Santa Clara
W 2.08 created, 0.82 conceded against Estoril Praia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Vitória SC: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Vitória SC against CD Nacional before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.92	+10.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Vitória SC	52.7%	56.1%	−3.5 pp	1.90
Draw	28.2%	24.1%	+4.1 pp	3.55
CD Nacional	19.2%	19.8%	−0.6 pp	5.21

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Over 2.5 goals	50.9%	50.0%	+0.9 pp	1.96
Under 2.5 goals	49.1%	50.0%	−0.9 pp	2.04

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Vitória SC sample: 20 matches
CD Nacional sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.