xgEdge

Expected goals

CD Nacional expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Liga Portugal · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

CD Nacional's attacking and defensive expected goals in Liga Portugal 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

CD Nacional xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.15 xG per match
#12/18
Attack (xG per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Benfica 2.32
#2 FC Porto 2.26
#3 Sporting 2.01
#4 Vitória SC 1.77
#5 FC Alverca 1.40
#6 Santa Clara 1.35
#7 Gil Vicente 1.31
#8 Académico Viseu FC 1.30
#9 Sporting Braga 1.25
#10 FC Arouca 1.24
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 1.23
#12 CD Nacional 1.15
#13 Famalicão 0.99
#14 Marítimo 0.94
#15 Casa Pia 0.89
#16 Estoril Praia 0.85
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.54
League avg
1.31
Total
8.07 7 matches
Defence
1.87 xGA per match
#17/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Sporting Braga 0.65
#2 Benfica 0.65
#3 Santa Clara 0.69
#4 Vitória SC 0.77
#5 Sporting 0.79
#6 Gil Vicente 0.88
#7 FC Porto 0.98
#8 Famalicão 1.25
#9 Marítimo 1.32
#10 FC Arouca 1.38
#11 Estoril Praia 1.62
#12 CF Estrela Amadora 1.63
#13 Académico Viseu FC 1.71
#14 Moreirense 1.73
#15 FC Alverca 1.74
#16 Casa Pia 1.77
#17 CD Nacional 1.87
#18 Rio Ave 1.92
League avg
1.31
Total
13.10 7 matches
xG difference
-0.72 xGD per match
#14/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Benfica +1.66
#2 FC Porto +1.28
#3 Sporting +1.22
#4 Vitória SC +0.99
#5 Santa Clara +0.67
#6 Sporting Braga +0.60
#7 Gil Vicente +0.43
#8 FC Arouca -0.14
#9 Famalicão -0.26
#10 FC Alverca -0.34
#11 Marítimo -0.38
#12 CF Estrela Amadora -0.40
#13 Académico Viseu FC -0.41
#14 CD Nacional -0.72
#15 Estoril Praia -0.76
#16 Casa Pia -0.87
#17 Moreirense -1.06
#18 Rio Ave -1.38
League avg
0.00
Total
-5.03 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.06 xPts per match
#13/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Benfica 2.40
#2 FC Porto 2.22
#3 Sporting 2.17
#4 Vitória SC 1.96
#5 Santa Clara 1.93
#6 Sporting Braga 1.83
#7 Gil Vicente 1.76
#8 FC Arouca 1.37
#9 Famalicão 1.18
#10 CF Estrela Amadora 1.13
#11 Académico Viseu FC 1.08
#12 Marítimo 1.07
#13 CD Nacional 1.06
#14 FC Alverca 1.06
#15 Casa Pia 0.91
#16 Estoril Praia 0.82
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.46
League avg
1.39
Total
7.40 vs 4 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

CD Nacional's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Liga Portugal. They rank #14 for xG difference at -0.72 per match, from low shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 7 goals are 1.07 below 8.07 xG, while 4 points are 3.40 below 7.40 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.71 xG from penalties
7 8.07 -1.07 scored 1.07 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
15 13.10 +1.90 conceded 1.90 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
4 7.40 -3.40 3.40 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

CD Nacional are 1.07 goals below their xG after 7 matches.

Goals
7
xG
8.07
Gap
-1.07
Mon 10/08 Sun 16/08 Sun 23/08 Sun 30/08 Sat 05/09 Sat 12/09 Sat 19/09 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.77 +0.69 +0.27 +1.44 +1.36 +0.16 -1.07 +0.77 -0.08 -0.42 +1.17 -0.08 -1.20 -1.23 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
CD Nacional: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Mon 10/08 Santa Clara 2 1.23 +0.77 +0.77
Sun 16/08 Estoril Praia 2 2.08 -0.08 +0.69
Sun 23/08 Vitória SC 0 0.42 -0.42 +0.27
Sun 30/08 CF Estrela Amadora 2 0.83 +1.17 +1.44
Sat 05/09 Sporting 0 0.08 -0.08 +1.36
Sat 12/09 FC Alverca 1 2.20 -1.20 +0.16
Sat 19/09 Famalicão 0 1.23 -1.23 -1.07

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

CD Nacional xG trend

Current form -0.40 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 7 matches. The worst was against Sporting on Sat 05/09 (-2.13).

npxG · last 6
1.15
npxGA · last 6
1.55
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -1.02 Mon 10/08 +1.28 Sun 16/08 -1.92 Sun 23/08 -0.49 Sun 30/08 -2.13 Sat 05/09 +1.09 Sat 12/09 -0.23 Sat 19/09 -0.49 season avg
CD Nacional: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Mon 10/08 Santa Clara 0.45 1.47 -1.02 -1.02
Sun 16/08 Estoril Praia 2.10 0.82 +1.28 +0.13
Sun 23/08 Vitória SC 0.43 2.35 -1.92 -0.55
Sun 30/08 CF Estrela Amadora 0.83 1.32 -0.49 -0.54
Sat 05/09 Sporting 0.08 2.21 -2.13 -0.86
Sat 12/09 FC Alverca 2.25 1.16 +1.09 -0.53
Sat 19/09 Famalicão 1.22 1.45 -0.23 -0.49

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.05 npxG and 1.54 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 4 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
+0.09 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 2 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
+0.15 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.09 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · tied number 4 hardest of 18

  1. Famalicão Home +0.02
  2. FC Alverca Home −0.10
  3. Sporting Away +0.55
  4. CF Estrela Amadora Home −0.13
  5. Vitória SC Away +0.40
  6. Estoril Praia Home −0.36
  7. Santa Clara Away +0.22

Last 5

+0.15 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 2 hardest of 18

  1. Famalicão Home +0.02
  2. FC Alverca Home −0.10
  3. Sporting Away +0.55
  4. CF Estrela Amadora Home −0.13
  5. Vitória SC Away +0.40

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

CD Nacional shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. CD Nacional take 10.7 shots a match (league 12.2) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #12 in Liga Portugal for volume and #7 for quality. 56% of their shots come from inside the box (league 63%), and set pieces produce 19% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
10.7 shots per match
#12/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Benfica 19.1
=1 Vitória SC 19.1
#3 FC Porto 16.0
#4 Gil Vicente 14.0
#5 Sporting 13.4
=6 CF Estrela Amadora 13.1
=6 Santa Clara 13.1
#8 Estoril Praia 12.7
#9 Sporting Braga 12.5
#10 FC Alverca 11.9
#11 FC Arouca 10.9
#12 CD Nacional 10.7
#13 Marítimo 10.4
#14 Casa Pia 10.3
#15 Famalicão 9.6
#16 Académico Viseu FC 9.3
#17 Moreirense 7.3
#18 Rio Ave 7.1
League avg
12.2
Total
75 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#7/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Académico Viseu FC 0.15
#2 Sporting 0.14
#3 FC Porto 0.12
#4 Benfica 0.11
#5 FC Alverca 0.11
#6 FC Arouca 0.11
#7 CD Nacional 0.10
#8 Sporting Braga 0.10
#9 Santa Clara 0.10
#10 Famalicão 0.09
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 0.09
#12 Vitória SC 0.09
#13 Marítimo 0.08
#14 Moreirense 0.08
#15 Gil Vicente 0.07
#16 Casa Pia 0.07
#17 Estoril Praia 0.06
#18 Rio Ave 0.06
League avg
0.10
Total
7.36 npxG from 75 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
15.1 shots per match
#14/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Vitória SC 7.1
#2 Benfica 7.6
#3 Santa Clara 8.1
#4 Sporting 8.6
#5 Sporting Braga 8.7
#6 Gil Vicente 9.8
#7 FC Porto 10.7
#8 CF Estrela Amadora 11.6
#9 Famalicão 12.0
#10 FC Alverca 12.1
#11 Marítimo 13.4
#12 Estoril Praia 13.9
#13 FC Arouca 14.9
#14 CD Nacional 15.1
=15 Casa Pia 15.7
=15 Moreirense 15.7
#17 Rio Ave 16.9
#18 Académico Viseu FC 17.6
League avg
12.2
Total
106 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#13/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Sporting Braga 0.06
#2 Santa Clara 0.07
#3 Gil Vicente 0.08
#4 Sporting 0.08
#5 FC Porto 0.08
#6 Académico Viseu FC 0.08
#7 Benfica 0.09
#8 Marítimo 0.09
#9 FC Arouca 0.09
#10 Famalicão 0.10
#11 Casa Pia 0.10
#12 Moreirense 0.10
#13 CD Nacional 0.10
#14 Estoril Praia 0.11
#15 Rio Ave 0.11
#16 Vitória SC 0.11
#17 CF Estrela Amadora 0.12
#18 FC Alverca 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
10.78 npxGA from 106 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

56% inside the box

League avg 63%

From 42 of 75 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

56% allowed inside the box

League avg 63%

From 59 of 106 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

81% open play · 19% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 1.4 of 7.4 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

85% open play · 15% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 1.6 of 10.7 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

CD Nacional home and away xG

CD Nacional per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 1.59 0.58
xGA / match 1.38 2.52
xGD / match +0.20 -1.95
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.52 0.44

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every CD Nacional match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.15
xGA / match
1.87
xGD / match
-0.72
Points
4 of 21
  1. Sat 19/09 Famalicão H xG 1.23 xGA 1.45 xGD -0.22
  2. Sat 12/09 FC Alverca H Against the chances xG 2.20 xGA 1.16 xGD +1.04
  3. Sat 05/09 Sporting A Weakest underlying xG 0.08 xGA 3.00 P xGD -2.92
  4. Sun 30/08 CF Estrela Amadora H xG 0.83 xGA 2.10 P xGD -1.27
  5. Sun 23/08 Vitória SC A xG 0.42 xGA 3.14 P xGD -2.72
  6. Sun 16/08 Estoril Praia H Best underlying xG 2.08 xGA 0.82 xGD +1.26
  7. Mon 10/08 Santa Clara A xG 1.23 P xGA 1.43 xGD -0.20

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.14. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

CD Nacional in Liga Portugal

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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