Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 16:30
7d 8h to kick-offRio Ave – CD Nacional
Model updated 4 October, 06:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Rio Ave
- 32%
- Draw
- 32%
- CD Nacional
- 35%
| Rio Ave | Draw | CD Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.08 | 3.08 | 2.85 |
- Total goals
- 2.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.
-
Rio Ave
- Model
- 32.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 42.3%
- Probability gap
- −9.8 pp
- Edge
- −28.6%
- Fair odds
- 3.08
- Market odds
- 2.20 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.24
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 32.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 29.1%
- Probability gap
- +3.3 pp
- Edge
- +3.7%
- Fair odds
- 3.08
- Market odds
- 3.20 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.24
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
-
CD Nacional
- Model
- 35.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 28.6%
- Probability gap
- +6.5 pp
- Edge
- +14.2%
- Fair odds
- 2.85
- Market odds
- 3.25 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.99
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
Outcomes with value
CD Nacional to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Best opportunity
CD Nacional to win
Model 35.1% vs. bookmaker 28.6%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: CD Nacional to win
What the model's reading is made of
- The model makes CD Nacional to win 35.1%. The market, with the bookmaker's margin taken out, makes it 28.6%. The gap between the two is 6.5%.
- The defence CD Nacional plays against is Rio Ave's, which the fit rates at 1.22 — above the competition's average of 1.00, so an average side creates more against them than against the field.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | Rio Ave | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | -1.36 | -0.81 |
| Goals scored minus expected | +1.22 | -1.07 |
| Points won minus expected | +0.80 | -3.40 |
| npxG per shot | 0.06 | 0.10 |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model can't separate them
35% CD Nacional to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 18th
- CD Nacional attack v Rio Ave defence
- Defence
- 17th vs 17th
- CD Nacional defence v Rio Ave attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.81 vs -1.36
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.18 – 1.23
- Rio Ave v CD Nacional
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Rio Ave | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.54 · 18th | (better) 1.15 · 12th |
| xGA / match | 1.92 · 18th | (better) 1.87 · 17th |
| xGD / match | -1.38 · 18th | (better) -0.72 · 14th |
| xPts / match | 0.46 · 18th | (better) 1.06 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.36 | (better) -0.81 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- CD Nacional clean sheet
- 28%
- CD Nacional 2+ goals
- 35%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.7%
- 1:2
- 9.4%
- 0:0
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Rio Ave sample
- 20 matches
- CD Nacional sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Rio Ave
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · CD Nacional
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 06:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.