Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 16:30
Full timeSanta Clara 4:0 Rio Ave
Santa Clara were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was Santa Clara's attack: 1.80 xG against 1.39 projected (+0.41). Rio Ave produced 0.32 xG against 0.68 projected (−0.36).
Goals
- 4' Brenner Santa Clara · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
- 47' Tiago Ribeiro Santa Clara · 0.21 xG chance 2–0
- 52' Vinícius Lopes Santa Clara · 0.16 xG chance 3–0
- 90' Luis Fernando Santa Clara · 0.23 xG chance 4–0
The model against the result
- Santa Clara
- 53% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- Rio Ave
- 15%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Santa Clara produced 0.41 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 5
- On target
- 6
- 3
- Inside the box
- 14
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 1.87
- 0.30
- Set-piece xG
- 0.04
- 0.03
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.90 for Santa Clara and 0.32 for Rio Ave.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
21 shots · 2.24 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Santa Clara
- Rio Ave
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.22 xG created 0.79 xGA
- W 1.37 created, 0.61 conceded against CD Nacional
- L 0.47 created, 0.85 conceded against FC Porto
- D 1.43 created, 1.23 conceded against CD Nacional
- W 1.27 created, 0.58 conceded against Académico Viseu FC
- W 1.36 created, 1.05 conceded against Famalicão
- D 1.41 created, 0.41 conceded against FC Alverca
0.54 xG created 1.73 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara to win | 1.95 | +3.8% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.57 | +3.2% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 1.75 | +1.1% | Won |
| Draw | 3.20 | +0.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 53.2% | 48.2% | +5.0 pp | 1.88 |
| Draw | 31.4% | 29.4% | +2.0 pp | 3.18 |
| Rio Ave | 15.4% | 22.4% | −7.0 pp | 6.51 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 42.2% | 46.7% | −4.4 pp | 2.37 |
| Both teams not to score | 57.8% | 53.3% | +4.4 pp | 1.73 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.3% | 66.3% | −1.0 pp | 1.53 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 34.7% | 33.7% | +1.0 pp | 2.88 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.3% | 40.1% | −5.8 pp | 2.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 65.7% | 59.9% | +5.8 pp | 1.52 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Santa Clara sample
- 20 matches
- Rio Ave sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.